Baltic
Dry Index. 2134 -86 Brent Crude 66.28
Spot Gold 3864 US 2 Year Yield 3.68 +0.03
US Federal Debt. 37.548 trillion
US GDP 30.301 trillion.
“Never memorize something that
you can look up.”
Albert Einstein
The government of the world’s leading economy is in partial shutdown this morning, hopefully with only minimal impact on the US economy.
Time will tell, if the shutdown lasts longer than just a day or two.
Government shutdown live updates: Funding ends
after Trump, GOP, Democrats fail to cut deal
Updated Wed, Oct 1 2025 12:40 AM EDT
The United States government shut
down early Wednesday morning, setting the stage for the furlough of
hundreds of thousands of federal workers and the shuttering of a slew of key
programs and services.
Here’s what to know:
- The
full shutdown began after top Democrats and Republicans, including
President Donald Trump, failed to agree on a short-term deal to keep the
government funded.
- Democrats,
led by Sen. Chuck Schumer and Rep. Hakeem Jeffries, demand that any
stopgap funding measure include an extension of enhanced Obamacare tax
credits.
- Trump
suggested Tuesday that his administration could take major actions during
a shutdown, including cutting government benefits for “large numbers of
people.”
- The
Senate adjourned after last-ditch votes on Republican and Democratic
funding proposals both failed to pass.
More
Government
shutdown 2025: Live updates, news and analysis
Asia markets trade mixed after U.S. government
shuts down
Published Tue, Sep 30 2025 7:54 PM EDT
Asia-Pacific markets were mixed Wednesday,
following gains on Wall Street as investors appeared unperturbed by the U.S.
government shutdown.
Spot gold prices surged 0.09% to hit a
fresh record of $3,875.32 as of 11:04 a.m. Singapore time (11:04 p.m. ET).
Over in Japan, the central bank released
the results for its third-quarter Tankan survey. The Tankan survey
measures business sentiment among domestic companies, and is closely watched by
the Bank of Japan.
The index for business optimism among
large Japanese manufacturers increased to +14 for the third quarter from +13 in
the previous quarter, but was lower than the +15 expected by economists polled
by Reuters. The non-manufacturing index held steady at +34.
A positive figure on the Tankan indicates that optimists outnumber
pessimists.
Investors in Asia also await the Reserve
Bank of India’s interest-rate decision later in the day.
Japan’s Nikkei 225 sunk 1.16%, while
the broad based Topix was down 1.71%.
In South Korea, the blue-chip Kospi was up 0.79%, and the
small-cap Kosdaq gained 0.56%.
The Taiwan Weighted Index led
gains in Asia, adding 1.14% as healthcare and tech stocks powered the index’s
rise. Chip heavyweight TSMC was
up 2.3% after AI darling Nvidia
topped $4.5 trillion in market cap.
Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 slipped
0.26%.
Markets on mainland China and Hong Kong
were closed for a holiday.
Overnight in the U.S., the S&P 500 closed up 0.41%
at 6,688.46, while the Nasdaq
Composite climbed 0.31% to finish at 22,660.01.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average advanced
81.82 points, or 0.18%, to close at 46,397.89 — a fresh closing high.
Asia markets trade mixed ahead of a potential U.S. government shutdown
Consumer confidence weakens on growing concerns
about jobs
Consumer-confidence index hits lowest
level since April
Last Updated: Sept. 30, 2025 at
10:36 a.m. ET
Consumer confidence fell sharply in
September on growing worries about the labor market.
The consumer-confidence index dropped to
94.2 in September from a revised 97.8 in the prior month, the Conference Board said Tuesday. This is the lowest level
since April.
Economists polled by the Wall Street
Journal had forecast the index to slip to 96.0 in September from the initial
estimate of 97.4 in August.
Consumers’ assessment of the availability
of jobs fell for the ninth straight month.
Key details: A measure
that looks at how consumers feel about the economy right now fell 7 points to
125.4. That’s the largest drop in a year.
A confidence gauge that looks six months
ahead dropped by 1.3 points to 73.4. Since February, the expectations index has
been below the threshold of 80, which has traditionally been seen as a signal
of recession.
Economists focus on labor-market
conditions by measuring the spread between the percentage of consumers who
think jobs are plentiful and the percentage who think jobs are hard to get.
That spread, called the labor-market
differential, has narrowed for nine straight months and is now at a multiyear
low of 7.8.
Big picture: The decline in
sentiment reflects worries about the labor market that spiked after the weak
July jobs report.
People are pessimistic because it is
difficult to upgrade a job, interest rates are high, the threat of tariffs
remains and “there seems to be a new impactful development in economic policy
each week,” said Elizabeth Renter, senior economist at NerdWallet.
Consumer
confidence weakens on growing concerns about jobs - MarketWatch
In other news.
UK economy stalls in second quarter
Tuesday 30 September 2025 7:25 am
The UK economy grew at a sluggish pace of
0.3 per cent in the second quarter of the year, official data has shown,
another major setback for Chancellor Rachel Reeves’ as she hopes to oversee
higher growth.
The Office for National Statistics left
its growth figure unchanged from a previous estimate as it confirmed its
figures for growth in the second quarter, which is likely to be viewed
cautiously by Treasury officials.
The figure is much smaller than 0.7 per
cennt growth seen in the first three months of the year, with firms reporting
they had front-loaded spending in the year to get ahead of any potential global
tariffs war unleashed by President Trump.
A one per cent surge in construction and
0.4 per cent rise in the services sector prevented the UK economy from decline,
with production falling by 0.8 per cent and weighing down on results.
The ONS also said business investment fell
1.1 per cent between April and June, a key measure for showing whether
companies are looking to expand at pace.
Over a year’s period, the UK economy grew
slightly higher than expected at 1.4 per cent.
Data also showed that real household
disposable income edged up slightly by 0.2 per cent after a sharper fall in the
first three months of the year.
The ONS’ latest publication may spoil the
mood at the Labour Party conference in Liverpool, with a ‘business day’ on
Monday seeing government officials hear from private sector chiefs on tax and
regulation.
Among those attending were representatives
from major industry groups such as the Confederation of British Industry (CBI)
and the British Chambers of Commerce (BCC) as well as bank chiefs from the
likes of Citigroup UK.
In a speech in the afternoon, Reeves told
conference attendees that “harder” choices would come ahead given expected
growth downgrades and
higher borrowing cost estimates by the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR)
will likely create to a £30bn shortfall in public finances.
She also used her speech to talk up
investment and re-iterate the importance of “securonomics”, taking a swipe at
critics who have called on her to spend more or adjust her fiscal rules.
Reeves and ministers including Darren
Jones have refused to rule out increasing VAT at this year’s Budget, claiming
that manifesto commitments not to raise it “stand”.
A VAT rise could
include broadening the base of products that the tax is charged on though
reports have suggested that Reeves could look to reduce energy prices by
creating another exemption, a move she may hope could drive growth across the
UK.
Senior Downing Street officials also
admitted public finances were in a “difficult” state and tax rises look all but
certain later this year.
Analysis-Italy reaps tax windfall thanks to
inflation, job growth
29 September 2025
ROME (Reuters) -Italy's tax take is rising
faster than expected thanks to job growth and inflation, putting the budget
deficit on track to dip below the European Union ceiling of 3% of gross
domestic product in 2025, a year ahead of schedule.
Tax revenues rose by more than 16 billion
euros ($18.76 billion) between January and July, 5% higher than in the same
period last year and outpacing the expectations of the Italian Treasury, which
in April forecast a 0.8% increase for the full year.
The government had estimated a deficit of
3.3% of GDP in 2025, but the extra taxes mean the fiscal gap will probably be
significantly lower.
Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni and her
right-wing allies are claiming credit for the stronger numbers, yet economists
say the upswing has been caused by phenomena not necessarily tied to the
government, which took office in late 2022.
ARITHMETIC OF ITALY'S TAX TAKE
Tax evasion reforms introduced over the
years are bearing fruit, analysts say, although much of the heavy lifting is
down to inflation-driven fiscal drag and the creation of some 2 million new
jobs over the past four years that have boosted tax receipts.
"Job growth boosts both tax revenue
and GDP, but tax revenues grow faster than GDP since employment is taxed much
more heavily than other kinds of income," said Marco Leonardi, economics
professor at Milan's Statale University.
Meloni frequently points to the job growth
as an achievement of her government, but never mentions the fiscal drag - a
simple economic phenomenon where inflation and nominal pay growth raise the
proportion of taxes paid on income.
Leonardi estimated that the state had
collected an extra 25 billion euros from 2021 to 2024 thanks to this effect,
with more cash piling up this year, outpacing limited tax cuts introduced by
Meloni so far.
Consumer prices in Italy rose by 19%
between 2020 and this year. Wages have risen in nominal terms in recent years
too but by less than inflation, leaving ordinary Italians feeling worse
off. Italian salaries adjusted for inflation are below the level of 1990,
data by the OECD and Italy's national statistics bureau ISTAT show.
"The government says it has passed
billions of euros of tax cuts, but the impact on our pay packet seems minimal
or inexistent. Meanwhile, prices remain high," said Veronica D'Amato, an
office worker from Rome.
In Germany, by contrast, the government
shifts income‑tax brackets each year to offset fully the impact of inflation.
France has seen no tax windfall this year,
partly as a result of more modest employment and consumer price growth than
Italy, and faces a 2025 budget deficit of at least 5.4% of GDP.
RISING TAX COMPLIANCE
Italy's sturdier accounts are also a
reflection of new rules introduced progressively since 2011 that have narrowed
the scope to evade taxes, with successive governments pushing traceable digital
payments and tightening controls.
Tools now in place include expanded e‑invoicing,
real‑time VAT reporting, penalties for retailers that refuse card payments, and
heavy use of data matching across state systems.
More
Analysis-Italy reaps tax windfall thanks to inflation, job growth
Global Inflation/Stagflation/Recession
Watch.
Given
our Magic Money Tree central banksters and our spendthrift politicians,
inflation now needs an entire section of its own.
Where
tariffs are hiding, and how to tell if you're paying one
Sep
28, 2025
Instead
of putting "tariff" on the tag,
some retailers are slipping costs into shipping, fees or relabels.
Why
it matters: Trade
duties and new import rules are driving up retailer costs, especially in
apparel, furniture, holiday
décor and toys. Those costs are
starting to be passed to consumers.
The
big picture: Retailers
are reshaping how prices show up, including raising shipping fees on items that
face duties after the late-August end of the "de
minimis" exemption on postal shipments to the U.S. worth less than
$800.
·
Vague
charges like "processing" or "import fees" are appearing
more often at checkout. Such shifting of tariff costs into the fine print makes
it harder to compare prices.
Zoom
in: Shoppers
have been posting on social media about finding price stickers layered over old
tags. TikToks and Reddit posts show Walmart and Target employees
spending shifts tearing tags off clothing.
·
Both
Target and Walmart confirmed they have changed their labeling or re-ticketing
process for some items, specifically in apparel, to increase flexibility and
stay competitive.
·
"Like
other retailers, pricing fluctuations are a normal course of business and are
influenced by a variety of factors," a Walmart spokesperson told Axios.
The
online side: It
can be easier to spot the higher prices at the end of the checkout process.
·
Stephanie
Carls, retail insights expert at RetailMeNot, tells Axios shipping costs have
routinely doubled or more — "it doesn't always say it's because of
tariffs, but that's often what's behind it."
·
GlobalData
retail analyst Neil Saunders said retailers often adjust shipping since tariffs
feel like a shipping cost — but warns consumers "are more likely to balk
at unreasonably high shipping fees than higher priced products."
Case
in point: One
retailer that shipped a pair of pants (linen trousers in "Cappucino")
from eastern Europe for $15 in mid-August shipped the exact same pair of pants,
retailing for the same price, for $42 in mid-September, per an Axios editor's
receipts.
·
An
Axios reporter ordered four shirts from Target at $10 each. Three came tagged
at $8, while the fourth had its price torn off — highlighting the murkiness of
re-ticketing.
More
Trump tariffs
drive hidden price hikes in shipping, fees and new tags
Brits
over £200 worse off as cost of living crisis continues
Tuesday
30 September 2025 2:41 pm
Brits
have found themselves over £200 worse off each month compared to last year, as
they continue to suffer the consequences of the cost of living crisis.
According
to the latest report from specialist bank Shawbrook, the average
UK adult is suffering a deficit of £224 each month.
Nearly
40 per cent of people confirmed they were worse off compared to last year, with
women being affected in particular, with 43 per cent saying they were suffering
financially.
Among
age groups, Gen X, were in particular feeling the squeeze, with over 50 per
cent acknowledging their situation had worsened.
Brits
have suffered multiple crushing personal finance blows so far this
year, as bills, taxes and food prices soar while wage growth fails to keep pace
with rapidly spiralling costs.
Homeowners
hit the hardest
Meanwhile,
homeowners were hit the hardest, as mortgage holders reported an even higher
average monthly deficit of £262 compared to 2024.
The
difficulties reflect the state of the UK property market, as more prospective
buyers struggle to get on the ladder and others scramble to
pay off their mortgages.
According
to price comparison website Money Supermarket, the average UK house deposit is
£75,072, a sharp rise from last year’s figures of £71,565.
More
Brits
over £200 worse off as cost of living crisis continues
Covid-19
Corner
This
section will continue only occasionally when something of interest occurs.
Technology
Update.
With events happening fast in the
development of solar power and graphene, among other things, I’ve added this
section. Updates as they get reported.
Approx. 6 minutes.
Lithium-ion
Battery Fire CRIPPLES South Korea’s Government
Lithium-ion Battery Fire CRIPPLES South Korea’s Government
KAUST achieves 28.7% efficiency in perovskite-perovskite-silicon
tandem solar cell
An
international team of researchers led by King Abdullah University of Science
and Technology has fabricated a triple junction perovskite-perovskite-silicon
tandem solar cell that achieved a world record efficiency for this cell
architecture. The device incorporates stabilised perovskites that ensure
improved performance and stability.
September 30, 2025
Researchers at the King Abdullah University of Science and Technology
(KAUST) in Saudi Arabia have fabricated a
triple-junction perovskite-perovskite-silicon tandem cell with stabilised
perovskite layers that achieved a power conversion efficiency of 28.7% on a
device with 1-cm2 aperture area. It is a new efficiency record for this type of
cell, according to the research team.
The research team noted that the high
efficiency potential of such triple junction cells has yet to be reached due to
well-documented issues with the 1.50-eV formamidinium lead triiodide
(FAPbI3)-based middle layer and the 2.0-eV bromide-rich (Br-rich) top layer.
The former typically suffers degradation during subsequent solar cell
fabrication steps and the latter suffers from light-induced phase segregation.
“First, we systematically defined the
various phase degradation mechanisms across different perovskite compositions
as a unified phase instability framework, fundamentally driven by phase
transitions and ion migration,” Stefaan De Wolf, corresponding author,
told pv magazine.
“To address this, we introduced
3-ammonium propionic acid (3A⁺) into the perovskite lattice, forming multiple
ionic and hydrogen bonds. This structural modification significantly raised the
phase transition energy barriers and suppressed the formation of Schottky
defects, which are known to facilitate such transitions.”
The group reported the effects of the
modification “simultaneously” inhibited both the degradation in the 1.5 eV
perovskites and the light-induced phase segregation of 2.0 eV perovskites.
“Furthermore, the carboxylic group in
3A⁺ interacts strongly with the buried interface, a self-assembled monolayer
(SAM), enhancing electronic cloud coupling and promoting more efficient charge
transport,” De Wolf said.
In the study, the researchers also
tested the ammonium modification on tin lead (Sn-Pb) junction cells with a
narrow bandgap of around 1.25 eV.
After testing, the team observed reduced
bulk vacancy formation and improved efficiency of the sample perovskite solar
cells, “including Sn-Pb narrow-bandgap, FAPbI3-based mid-bandgap, and Br-rich
wide-bandgap compositions,” according to De Wolf.
“By incorporating these stabilised
perovskites into triple-junction devices, we achieved an efficiency of 28.7%
for perovskite/perovskite/silicon tandems, representing a new efficiency record
in the field,” he said, adding that both stability and reproducibility of the
devices were markedly improved, with the devices retaining over 85% of the
initial efficiency after 1,000 hours of continuous illumination.
“These results not only push the
boundaries of triple-junction solar cell efficiency but also offer a
generalisable strategy for improving the phase stability of perovskite
absorbers, an essential step toward their industrial deployment,” De Wolf said.
Details of the investigation are
described in “Stabilised perovskite phases enabling efficient
perovskite/perovskite/silicon triple-junction solar cells,” published in nature materials.
Researchers from Marmara University in Turkey and Ludwig Maximilians
Universität (LMU) in Germany also participated in the study.
Looking ahead, the team will continue to
“push the efficiency of triple-junction perovskite-based solar cells beyond the
single-junction Shockley-Queisser limit,” through comprehensive material and
device innovations, according to De Wolf.
The group intends to focus particularly
on optimising the top perovskite sub-cell, including new wide-bandgap
compositions and refined interfacial designs, to minimize losses and enhance
overall performance.
Next, the
world global debt clock. Nations debts to GDP compared.
World Debt Clocks (usdebtclock.org)
“If we knew what it was we were doing, it would not be called
research, would it?”
Albert Einstein
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