Baltic
Dry Index. 2154 + 01
Brent Crude 68.37
Spot Gold 3681 US 2 Year Yield 3.51 -0.03
US Federal Debt. 37.490 trillion
US GDP 30.271 trillion.
People of the same trade seldom meet together, even for merriment and diversion, but the conversation ends in a conspiracy against the public, or in some contrivance to raise prices…. But though the law cannot hinder people of the same trade from sometimes assembling together, it ought to do nothing to facilitate such assemblies, much less to render them necessary.
Adam Smith, The Wealth Of Nations, 1776.
It is Fed Chairman Powell’s big day. To cut the Fed’s key interest rate, but by how much? President Trump wants a 3 percent interest rate cut, but Chairman Powell and his gang are thinking more on a 25 or 50 basis point rate cut. Both are already priced into stocks.
On the other side of the Atlantic, it is day one of President Trump’s state visit to Great Britain. Due to increased security following last week’s assassination in Utah, President Trump is making no public appearances.
Several AI trade deals are scheduled to be announced.
In the global stock casinos, an ever-widening disconnected AI bubble from a slowing global economic reality.
Japan’s benchmark Nikkei 225 breaches 45,000 mark
to hit a fresh high
Published Mon, Sep 15 2025 7:59 PM EDT Updated
Tue, Sep 16 2025 4:10 AM EDT
Japan’s benchmark Nikkei 225 surpassed the
45,000 mark for the first time, leading gains in Asia-Pacific markets Monday,
after President Donald Trump said
that the U.S.-China trade negotiations in Spain were progressing well. The
benchmark added 0.3% to close at 44,902.27.
The trade talks were, however,
overshadowed by a “framework” deal regarding the divestment of Chinese-owned
TikTok, announced by Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent Monday. Speaking from
Madrid, Bessent noted that the commercial terms have already been settled.
Both U.S. President Donald Trump and Chinese
President Xi
Jinping will speak on Friday to discuss the terms.
Japan’s Topix gained 0.25% to end the trading day at 3,168.36
after crossing an all-time high.
South Korea’s Kospi continued to notch a
fresh record for the second day, closing 1.24% higher at 3,449.62, after the
government reversed its plan to hike capital gains tax on stocks on Monday.
Among the top gainers on the index were car dealer Kolon Mobility Group, which
rose 29.91%, Il Dong Pharmaceutical, which increased 18.16%, and instant
noodles company Nongshim,
which was up 16.78%.
Meanwhile, the small-cap Kosdaq fell 0.85%
to 851.84.
Australia’s ASX/S&P 200 climbed
0.28% to 8,877.7.
Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index reversed
course to decline 0.13%, and the mainland’s CSI 300 retreated 0.21% to
4,523.34.
Overnight in the U.S., major averages
closed higher as investors braced for a key Federal Reserve meeting this week.
The S&P 500 climbed 0.5% to
6,615.28, marking its first close above 6,600. The Nasdaq Composite also
advanced to a new all-time high, rising 0.9% to 22,348.75. The Dow Jones Industrial Average eked
out a small gain, gaining 49.23 points, or 0.1%, to end the day at 45,883.45.
Japan's
benchmark Nikkei 225 breaches 45,000 mark to hit a fresh high
Stock futures are little changed as traders await
key Fed rate outlook: Live updates
Updated Tue, Sep 16 2025 6:45 PM EDT
Stock futures were little changed late
Tuesday as traders prepared for a much-anticipated monetary policy decision and
an even more important policy outlook from the Federal Reserve on Wednesday.
S&P 500 futures added
0.02%, while Nasdaq-100
futures advanced 0.02%. Futures contracts tied to the Dow Jones Industrial Average were
up 13 points, or 0.03%.
Traders almost universally expect the
Federal Reserve will lower interest rates on Wednesday, a move that
could boost the U.S. economy amid signs the labor market is slowing even as
inflation stays stubbornly above the central bank’s 2% target. Policymakers
will also give more insight into their outlook for rates over the next year or
so in the closely-watched “dot plot” grid that accompanies their quarterly
Summary of Economic Projections.
Investors will also watch for any policy
dissents from Fed policymakers after two such disagreeements at the last
meeting in July. Traders have priced in a 96% chance that the Fed will cut
rates by 25 basis points, or a quarter percentage point, and just 4% odds that
the market will get a half point reduction Wednesday, according to numbers derived from interest rate futures trading
at the CME Group.
Paul McCulley, former managing director at
PIMCO told CNBC’s “The Exchange” on Tuesday that a more conservative,
quarter-point rate cut is the most likely outcome of the Federal Open Market
Committee’s meeting.
“Quite frankly, I don’t know how I would
explain [a 50 basis point cut] in the current context without saying the labor
market really is worrying me intensely, and I don’t think that’s the message
that Chair Powell wants to communicate — at least not now,” McCulley
said.
Stocks ended little changed by the end of
Tuesday’s session.
The S&P 500 hit a fresh
intraday record before pulling back later in the day, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average shed
125.55 points to close 0.27% lower at 45,757.90. The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite failed to
score any fresh gain Tuesday too, after closing at record on Monday.
Stock
market today: Live updates
Bessent sees trade deal likely with China before
November deadline on reciprocal tariffs
Published Tue, Sep 16 2025 8:19 AM EDT Updated
Tue, Sep 16 2025 10:54 AM EDT
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent expressed
confidence Tuesday that a trade deal with China is near.
With so-called reciprocal tariffs set to
take effect in November, Bessent said during a CNBC interview that he expects
further talks to happen before then.
“We’ll be seeing each other again,” he
said during a wide-ranging exchange on “Squawk Box. “Each one of those
talks has become more and more productive. I think the Chinese now sense that a
trade deal is possible.”
The statement comes with talks taking a
series of twists and turns since Trump announced his initial “liberation day”
duties on U.S. global trading partners April 2.
Under the initial move, China would have
faced tariffs up to 145%, but those were suspended as talks continued. An
initial pause on reciprocal tariffs was to expire on Aug. 12, but Trump
extended the suspension to Nov. 10.
Bessent said he has been told by U.S.
trading partners that “Chinese goods are flooding their markets, and they don’t
know what to do about it. They’re slightly apoplectic that these goods are
coming in.”
The U.S. had a nearly $300 billion trade
deficit with China in 2024. That’s on pace to decline significantly in 2025 and
was at $128 billion through July.
Bessent noted that U.S. Trade
Representative Jamieson Greer expects the deficit “will narrow by at least 30%
this year and probably more in 2026.”
“So the idea here is to come into balance,
to have fair trade,” he said.
Bessent
sees trade deal likely with China before November deadline on reciprocal
tariffs
Singapore’s exports plunge 11.3% in August, much
weaker than forecast
Published Tue, Sep 16 2025 9:25 PM EDT
Singapore’s non-oil
domestic exports fell 11.3% in August from the same
month a year earlier, government data showed on
Wednesday, weaker than analysts’ estimates
as exports of both electronics and non-electronics fell.
The fall compared with a Reuters
poll forecast for an annual rise of 1.0%, and followed
a revised fall of 4.7% in July.
Non-oil exports to Indonesia,
the U.S. and China declined in August, but rose to the European
Union, Taiwan and South Korea, Enterprise Singapore said.
Despite having a free-trade agreement and
running a trade deficit with the U.S., Singapore has still been slapped with a
10% tariff rate by Washington. Singapore’s exports to the United
States dropped by an annual 28.8% in August, following a
42.8% fall in July.
While the city-state’s
economy performed better than expected in the first half of
the year due to export and production front-loading to beat the U.S. tariffs,
authorities have warned that growth is likely to slow in the second half.
More
Singapore's
exports plunge 11.3% in August, much weaker than forecast
Japan exports contract less than expected in
August as shipments to Asia rebound
Published Tue, Sep 16 2025 7:58 PM EDT
Japan’s exports contracted less than expected in August as
shipments to its largest trading region — Asia — rebounded, though the overall
growth stayed negative for a fourth straight month.
Japanese shipments fell 0.1% year on year,
compared to a 2.6% fall in July. This was much softer than the 1.9% contraction
expected by economists polled by Reuters.
The country’s imports declined at a softer
pace of 5.2%, compared to the 7.4% contraction in July, but more than the 4.2%
fall expected in the Reuters poll.
Exports from the world’s fourth-largest
economy have fallen into negative territory as the country grapples U.S.
tariffs and a slowdown from the front-loading of exports at the start of the
year.
Japan is also looking at political
uncertainty as Prime
Minister Shigeru Ishiba is set to step down, following electoral debacles
that saw the ruling Liberal Democratic Party lose its majority in both the
lower and upper houses of parliament.
Exports to Asia climbed 1.7% compared to
the same period last year, while shipments to Western Europe saw a sharp 7.7%
jump, partially offsetting a steeper fall in exports to the U.S.
Outbound goods to the U.S. dropped 13.8%
year on year, more than the 10.1% contraction seen in the prior month following
a trade deal with
Washington in late July, which saw tariff rates lowered to 15% from
25%.
Shipments of autos to the U.S. also
continued to plunge, falling 28.3% in terms of value year on year, just
marginally softer than the 28.4% decline in July. Autos were Japan’s largest
exports to the U.S. in 2024.
Exports to mainland China fell 0.5% year
on year, but shipments to Hong Kong jumped 14.4%. China is Japan’s largest
trading partner on a single-country basis.
More
Japan
exports slip for fourth straight month, but less than expected
In other news.
Israel is committing genocide in Gaza, declares
United Nations
16 September 2025
Israel’s war in Gaza amounts to genocide,
the United Nations has formally assessed for the first time.
In a detailed 72-page report, the UN
concludes that Israel is committing genocide as defined by the 1948 Genocide
Convention and is waging its campaign with “intent” – a crucial element of the
crime that is the hardest to prove.
“The Commission finds that Israel is
responsible for the commission of genocide in Gaza,” said Navi Pillay, Chair of
the UN Commission set up to investigate war crimes in the occupied Palestinian
territories. “It is clear that there is an intent to destroy the Palestinians
in Gaza through acts that meet the criteria set forth in the Genocide
Convention.”
The report was published by the UN’s
Independent International Commission of Inquiry on the Occupied Palestinian
Territory which has been tracking events in Gaza since the October 7 massacre
two years ago in which 1,200 people were killed and 250 taken hostage.
It concludes that Israel has “committed
four of the five genocidal acts defined by the 1948 Convention on the
Prevention and Punishment of the Crime of Genocide, namely killing, causing
serious bodily or mental harm, deliberately inflicting conditions of life
calculated to bring about the destruction of the Palestinians in whole or in
part, and imposing measures intended to prevent births”.
Although individuals working for the UN
have accused Israel of genocide in Gaza previously, this is the first time the
supranational body has issued a formal assessment of genocide.
The release of the commission’s finding
came as Israel reportedly launched a new ground invasion targeting Gaza City, a
month after Benjamin Netanyahu, the Israeli prime minister, ordered the
military to seize the territory’s largest urban centre.
The new offensive, reported by Axios,
coincides with mounting international pressure on Israel to end the almost
two-year war. Several counties, including Britain, are set to recognise a
Palestinian state this month.
The report will cause outrage in Israel
which maintains the war in Gaza is a war of “self-defence” and therefore legal.
It will also be rejected by the US and possibly other UN Security Council
members, including Britain.
In a letter published earlier this month,
David Lammy, the then Foreign Secretary, noted that the crime of genocide
requires intent to be proven said the British government had “not [at the time]
concluded that Israel is acting with that intent.”
The UN’s assessment will bolster the
case brought by South Africa to the International Court of Justice (ICJ) against
Israel for genocide by providing it with added weight and evidence.
“This is significant because the
Commission of Inquiry has a standing in the international system,” said Dr
Shane Darcy, deputy director and professor at the Irish Centre for Human Rights
in the School of Law. “Other entities will take notice, including the
International Court of Justice, where there are already proceedings [against
Israel] underway”.
The UN Commission found Israel had
“intentionally killed and seriously harmed an unprecedented number” of
Palestinians; caused “starvation” by blocking humanitarian aid and “implemented
a concerted policy to destroy the healthcare system of Gaza”.
Israel, like Hamas before it, had also
committed “sexual and gender-based violence against Palestinians” including
“rape, sexualised torture and forms of sexual violence” as part of “a pattern
of collective punishment to fracture, humiliate and subjugate the Palestinian
population in its entirety”, it said.
The Commission found that children were
“deliberately and directly targeted by the Israeli security forces”, including
during evacuation at shelters and food distribution sites. It added that
“children were shot by snipers and quadcopters, and some were killed while
holding white flags.”
The finding of “intent” will be most
controversial. The Commission says this was established – not through a single
document or confession – but that it was the “only reasonable inference” to be
drawn from the totality of Israel’s statements and actions.
Statements made by the Israeli
authorities, as well as the pattern of conduct of the Israeli military in Gaza,
“are direct evidence of genocidal intent,” the Commission said.
Mr Netanyahu, Yoav Gallant, Israel’s
former defence minister, and Isaac Herzog, its president, are all named in the
report as having “incited the commission of genocide” in Gaza.
More
Israel is
committing genocide in Gaza, declares United Nations
Global Inflation/Stagflation/Recession
Watch.
Given
our Magic Money Tree central banksters and our spendthrift politicians,
inflation now needs an entire section of its own.
BIS
warns of mounting disconnect between debt and stock markets
Mon,
September 15, 2025 at 12:18 PM GMT+1
LONDON
(Reuters) -The Bank for International Settlements has warned that record global
share prices appear increasingly disconnected from the rising concerns about
government debt levels in the bond markets.
The
BIS, which acts as an umbrella group for the world's central banks, said the
rise in the premium investors demand to buy the 30-year debt of top economies
this year showed "mounting concerns about the fiscal outlook".
Earlier
this year Moody's became the last of the main credit rating agencies to strip
the United States of triple A status, while France on Friday had its rating cut
to its lowest ever level by Fitch over concerns about government finances.
"This
is a time to be watchful of potential amplification channels that could
propagate stress," the head of the BIS' Monetary and Economic Department
Hyun Song Shin said, adding that the elevated valuations of risky assets leave
them vulnerable.
He
also highlighted how government bond issuance was increasingly being absorbed
by highly-leveraged investors such as hedge funds and that markets can erupt,
"well before debt levels exceed textbook definitions of
sustainability".
Meanwhile,
U.S. trade tariff impacts have been smaller than expected so far and there was
no evidence yet of global investors materially shifting away from U.S. assets.
While
some non-U.S. investors sold significant volumes of U.S. bonds and stocks in
April, the BIS said most of the flows had reversed in May and June.
"The
outsize holdings of U.S. assets by global investors, coupled with the slow pace
of strategic asset allocation decisions and mandates, indicate that any
significant portfolio shift away from U.S. assets is likely to be
gradual," it added.
More
BIS warns of
mounting disconnect between debt and stock markets
Firms
continue to shed workers as jobs market deteriorates
Tuesday
16 September 2025 7:58 am | Updated: Tuesday
16 September 2025 7:59 am
The
collapse of the UK
jobs market has deepened, according to official data, undermining the
Labour government’s goal to boost employment.
Firms
continued to shed workers as the number of payrolled employees dropped by 6,000
in July, adding to a collapse of 142,000 over the year.
Provisional
estimates suggest there was a fall of 8,000 payrolled employees in August while
the unemployment rate was still 4.7 per cent.
The
further decrease in job numbers will send a warning to Rachel Reeves two months
before the Autumn Budget, with the Treasury expected to be tasked with
finding around £30bn, mainly through tax hikes.
Top
economists and business groups have pointed out the impact of lowering the
salary threshold on employers’ national insurance contributions (NICs) last
autumn on firms’ ability to hire more workers.
The British
Chambers of Commerce (BCC)’s Shevaun Haviland and leaders at several
industry groups have called on Labour to avoid imposing more damaging taxes on
companies.
High
wage growth to boost state pension
Wage
growth excluding bonuses in the three months to July eased to 4.8 per cent,
which matched market forecasts, while pay growth including bonuses was 4.7 per
cent – threatening the Bank of England’s ambition to bring
inflation down and
engineer a “soft landing.”
Figures
from the previous month showed that wages rose by five per cent over a
three-month period, according to the Office for National Statistics
(ONS).
Fresh
data means the state pension is set to rise by 4.7 per cent as July wage growth
figures are used to calculate the increase.
The triple lock uprating policy means the pension increases by whichever is
highest out of wage growth in July or inflation in September.
With wage growth including bonuses rising by 4.7 per cent in July, it means
pensioners will earn £12,534.60 per year from next April.
They
could also be set for a state pension that is higher than the personal
allowance offered to working Brits from 2027, according to analysis by AJ
Bell’s head of public policy Rachel Vahey.
Vahey said the Treasury now faces a difficult battle in managing the extra cost
worth billions from higher state pensions and whether it can sustain the triple
lock.
“Removing the freeze on the personal allowance would come at significant cost
to the Treasury at a time when the chancellor’s fiscal headroom is already
strained at best, while an overhaul of the triple lock would come with huge
political risk before the next general election,” Vahey said.
More
UK jobs market
cracks and wage growth eases
Covid-19
Corner
This
section will continue only occasionally when something of interest occurs.
New
Covid variant symptoms that are easily overlooked as strain spreads rapidly
425
new infectionf of coronavirus, mostly believed to be the new Stratus variant
(also known as XFG), were recorded in Ireland in the first week of September as
experts warn of unusual early symptom
06:49,
15 Sep 2025 Updated 12:11, 15 Sep 2025
A Covid
variant is
coming in under the radar and leaving people with symptoms that could easily be
overlooked as the new strain spreads rapidly through the population.
Health
experts in Ireland recorded 425 new infections in the first week of September,
with the Stratus
variant (also
known as XFG), said to be behind the vast majority of new cases. It is said to
be spreading among the population with unusual early warning signs.
The variant
is surging rapidly, now accounting for 76.1 per cent of reported
infections compared to just 49.3 per cent six weeks ago, Ireland's Health
Protection Surveillance Centre said.
According
to the World Health Organization, Stratus is a "variant under
monitoring". It is not thought to produce a more severe illness, but it
can spread faster than earlier strains.
It
brings with it a subtle, early symptom that people could shake off rather than
acknowledging as an illness. Stratus' most common early warning sign is a
hoarse or raspy voice, which then makes way for the classic Covid indicators
like a fever or a cough.
Speaking
to Cosmopolitan UK, Harley Street GP Dr Kaywaan Khan said: "One of the
most noticeable symptoms of the Stratus variant is hoarseness, which includes a
scratchy or raspy voice."
Doctors
have also logged a number of other symptoms, including nasal congestion, sore
throats, stomach upsets and fatigue, according to the Irish Mirror. Infectious disease specialist Dr Peter
Chin-Hong from the University of California San Francisco warned that Stratus
presents a "wider range of symptoms" than previous variants.
He
told SFGATE : "There's a little bit more sore throats with some people.
Particularly in those who are older, who didn't get vaccinated last year. It's
more transmissible, so we expect that a lot of people will get it. Particularly
with kids going back to school, a sniffle is likely going to be Covid."
Even
as new symptoms emerge, Ireland's official Covid guidance has not changed. The
HSE said: "If you have any symptoms of Covid and feel unwell, you should:
stay at home until 48 hours after your symptoms are mostly or fully gone avoid
contact with other people, especially people at higher risk from Covid. You do
not need a Covid test unless a GP or health professional tells you to."
In
its advice, the NHS has provided
a long list of symptoms of traditional Covid-19 for Brits to watch out for.
COVID-19
symptoms can include:
·
a
high temperature or shivering (chills) – a high temperature means you feel hot
to touch on your chest or back (you do not need to measure your temperature)
·
a
new, continuous cough – this means coughing a lot for more than an hour, or 3
or more coughing episodes in 24 hours
·
a
loss or change to your sense of smell or taste
·
shortness
of breath
·
feeling
tired or exhausted
·
an
aching body
·
a
headache
more
New Covid variant symptoms that are easily overlooked as strain spreads
rapidly - The Mirror
Technology
Update.
With events happening fast in the
development of solar power and graphene, among other things, I’ve added this
section. Updates as they get reported.
Ultra-large 35MW offshore wind turbines envisaged in new tender
News
comes just weeks after record-smashing 26MW wind turbine was installed in
China, as analyst says turbines even of that size are 'unlikely to be the upper
limit'
16 September 2025
The prospect of goliath 35MW offshore
wind turbines has been raised in a new construction tender, as an industry race
to build ever more powerful machines shows no sign of slowing.
More, subscription required.
Ultra-large 35MW offshore wind turbines envisaged in new tender |
Recharge
Decline in global oil and gas field output accelerating, IEA says
16 September 2025
LONDON (Reuters) - The decline in output from mature global oil
and gas fields is accelerating amid greater reliance on shale and deep offshore
resources, the International Energy Agency said on Tuesday, meaning companies
need to invest more just to keep output flat.
The IEA, which advises industrialised countries, is under fire
from U.S. President Donald Trump's administration for a recent shift to focus
on clean energy policy. A 2021 IEA report said there should be no investment in
new oil, gas and coal projects if the world was serious about meeting climate
targets.
Tuesday's report warns that without continued investment in
existing fields, the world would lose the equivalent of Brazil and Norway's
combined oil production each year, with implications for markets and energy
security.
"Only a small portion of upstream oil and gas investment is
used to meet increases in demand while nearly 90% of upstream investment
annually is dedicated to offsetting losses of supply at existing fields,"
IEA Executive Director Fatih Birol said in an IEA statement.
"Decline rates are the elephant in the room for any
discussion of investment needs in oil and gas, and our new analysis shows that
they have accelerated in recent years."
Drawing on data from about 15,000 oil and gas fields around the
world, the IEA said that after reaching peak production the average annual
decline in output was 5.6% for conventional oil fields, and 6.8% for
conventional gas fields.
A halt in upstream investment would cut oil supply by 5.5 million
barrels per day each year, the IEA said, up from just under 4 million bpd in
2010. The 5.5 million bpd figure is roughly equal to Brazil's and Norway's
output combined.
The decline for natural gas has risen to 270 billion cubic metres
per year from 180 bcm, it said.
More
Decline in global
oil and gas field output accelerating, IEA says
Next, the
world global debt clock. Nations debts to GDP compared.
World Debt Clocks (usdebtclock.org)
The longer I live, the more convinced am I that this planet is
used by other planets as a lunatic asylum.
George Bernard Shaw
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