Baltic
Dry Index. 2126 +15
Brent Crude 67.35
Spot Gold 3644 US 2 Year Yield 3.56 +0.04
US Federal Debt. 37.482 trillion
US GDP 30.267 trillion.
Tis against some men’s principle to pay interest, and seems against others interest to pay the principle.
Benjamin Franklin
Uninvited to nearby Windsor for a dinner with
the Windsors and Trumps, I will be dinning, as usual, alone in my first floor
flat in Reading on Wednesday. For those on the left side of the Atlantic,
that’s one floor up from the ground floor in the UK, which would be the second
floor in Trump’s USA. I will also pass on attending Windsor for King Donald
the First’s President Trump’s carriage procession.
After Qatar gifted President Trump a 400 million dollar airplane after a state visit, maybe King Charles will have to let President Trump keep the carriage and horses used. Out of place in Washington D. C. they might be a better fit at Mar-a-Lago or Turnberry G.C. Scotland.
In the stock casinos this week, it’s all about whether Fed Chairman Powell cuts the Fed’s key interest rate by a quarter or a half of one percent. Trump’s FBI will be coming for him if he leaves the Fed’s key interest rate unchanged.
Later on Thursday, the Old Lady of Threadneedle Street gets to make their key interest rate decision while the rest of the world yawns.
In the global economy, look away from China, France and the UK now.
South Korea’s Kospi index hits record high after
government scraps tax-hike plan
Published Sun, Sep 14 2025 7:57 PM EDT
South Korea’s Kospi index rose in early
trade to a record high of 3,420.23 on Monday, marking its 10th straight session
of gains, after Finance Minister Koo Yun-cheol said that the government will
scrap its previous plan to raise taxes on stock investments.
The small-cap Kosdaq gained 0.15%
Elsewhere, Asia-Pacific markets traded
mixed as investors kept an eye on the talks between the U.S. and China in
Spain, and assessed a slate of data from Beijing.
U.S. and Chinese officials began talks in
Madrid Sunday to discuss key
national security, economic, and trade issues, including the upcoming deadline
to divest Chinese short video app TikTok and U.S. tariffs.
Delegations led by U.S. Treasury Secretary
Scott Bessent and U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer met with their
counterparts, Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng and China’s top trade negotiator,
Li Chenggang.
Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index moved up
0.16% at the open, while the Hang
Seng Tech index rose 0.27%.
China’s CSI 300 index advanced 0.59% in
early trade. The mainland’s economy slowed in
August as retail sales and industrial output missed expectations. The
contraction in real estate investment worsened, slumping 12.9% in the first
eight months, government data showed.
Australia’s ASX/S&P 200 fell 0.34%.
Japanese and Malaysian markets were closed
for a holiday.
U.S. equity futures were little changed in
early Asian hours as investors brace for a Federal Reserve meeting this week,
in hopes that the central bank will cut interest rates when it concludes its
meeting Wednesday stateside.
On Friday stateside, the Nasdaq Composite
closed at a fresh record high, securing its second winning week in a row with
its 2% advance in the period. The S&P 500 gained 1.6% week to date, posting
its best weekly performance since early August. The Dow posted its
first positive week in three after seeing a week-to-date climb of 1%.
The strong gains come after the latest
economic data showing a weakening labor market and tame inflation spurred Fed
rate-cut hopes.
South
Korea's Kospi index hits new record high
Global week ahead: From royal pomp to tech deals
as Trump visits the U.K.
Published Sun, Sep 14 2025 3:11 AM EDT
A state visit always sends a buzz through
the newsroom — and U.S. President Donald Trump’s trip to the U.K. next week
looks set to deliver royal, political and business headlines, despite being his
second such visit.
Trump and First Lady Melania will be
greeted at Windsor Castle by King Charles and Queen Camilla with a royal
salute, followed by a carriage procession.
Later, the president will lay a wreath on
the tomb of Queen Elizabeth II, which will be followed by a flypast of American
F-35 military jets alongside the British Red Arrows. The day will end with a
state banquet, during which both the king and president will make speeches.
On Thursday, it’s down to business.
Trump will head to Chequers, the country
house of sitting U.K. prime ministers, where he’ll meet Keir Starmer for a
series of bilateral meetings, followed by a joint press conference later that
day.
From a foreign policy perspective, the
timing is awkward.
Starmer has just fired the U.K.’s
U.S. ambassador Peter Mandelson, citing fresh details over his
connections with disgraced pedophile Jeffrey Epstein. Downing Street had pinned
much hope on Mandelson to reinvigorate the “special relationship” between the
two nations.
Interestingly, just two weeks ago,
the Telegraph
reported that
Trump had invited Mandelson’s predecessor, Karen Pierce, to this week’s state
banquet, in a sign that trouble may already have been brewing.
But back to business. Both Trump and
Starmer may be depending on the tech bros to bring some positive headlines.
CNBC’s Ryan Browne reported Friday that
Nvidia and OpenAI — which are both part of the U.S. business delegation
traveling with Trump — are set to make major U.K.
investment commitments. The two tech firms are discussing a sizable deal
to support data center development in the country, which could ultimately be
worth billions of dollars, a person familiar with the matter told CNBC.
U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent will
also attend the state banquet at Windsor Castle, as well as the meetings with
Starmer.
Bessent will be fresh off the plane from
Madrid, Spain, where he is meeting with Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng for the
fourth round of trade talks between the U.S. and China. They are also expected
to address the future of TikTok, which faces another deadline on Sept.
17,
to decide on either an American ban on the social media app, or a partial sale
by its Chinese parent ByteDance.
It’s a lot for one week. And while state
visits are known for their meticulous planning, the newsroom will be keeping
its eyes and ears open for any unexpected moments — whether it’s a hot-mic
slip-up, controversial outfit choice, exotic banquet menu selection, or any
other surprises that could come our way.
Economic data:
Monday: EU trade data
Tuesday: U.K. unemployment data
Wednesday: EU and U.K. inflation data
Thursday: Bank of England policy decision
Friday: U.K. retail sales
Global week ahead:
From royals to tech deals as Trump visits UK
Higher taxes will not raise more money, Arthur
Laffer warns Reeves
September 13, 2025
Britain’s tax burden has reached the
“critical point” at which further increases will cost more money than they
raise, a prominent US economist has warned.
Dr Arthur Laffer, the brains behind the
Laffer curve and a former economic adviser to Donald Trump, said a fresh Budget
raid on
workers and businesses in the autumn will prove self-defeating.
He said that high taxes had created “a
welfare mentality” and that Rachel
Reeves should
“base policies more on incentives” to work.
His intervention will prove awkward for
Downing Street, coming days before Mr Trump is set to touch down in the UK for
an unprecedented second state visit.
There are widespread expectations that the
Chancellor is planning significant tax rises at the autumn Budget to plug a
£50bn hole in the public finances.
Ms Reeves is facing a toxic combination of
spiralling debt costs and a stalling economy, with new figures showing that GDP
was completely flat in July.
Dr
Laffer –
who advised Mr Trump during his 2016 campaign and was formerly an adviser to
Ronald Reagan and Margaret Thatcher – made his remarks after a meeting with Sir
Mel Stride, the shadow chancellor.
The economist is best known for inventing
the Laffer curve, which sets out a theoretical relationship between the level
of taxation and resulting revenues.
The diagram, originally drawn on a napkin,
states that there is a point at which further tax rises become futile because
they cost more money than they raise.
That is when the impact on growth and the
effect of people and businesses changing their behaviour to avoid paying
outweigh the revenues achieved.
During a meeting with Sir Mel in the US
earlier this month, Dr Laffer said “the UK is at – or perhaps already beyond –
the critical point” on the curve.
He told the shadow chancellor: “Instead of
raising revenue, increasing taxes drives away capital, discourages work and
investment, and erodes the very base that funds the state. It’s a vicious
cycle.”
In a statement to The Telegraph, he added:
“The UK’s tax revenues, and thus the country’s ability to provide high-quality
welfare to those who truly need it, plus other government services, have been
seriously degraded.
“First, incomes are sufficiently low to
create the need for welfare because of the UK’s high tax rates – especially on
job creators.
“Second, high taxes over long periods
divert production from good products to tax shelters and tax avoidance.
“And third, high taxes create a welfare
mentality where everyone claims to be a victim.
“The UK should base policies more on
incentives. Don’t tax what you like and don’t subsidise what you don’t like.”
Dr Laffer stressed that his point was an
apolitical one, telling Sir Mel: “I’m here to make Britain better, whether
you’re Labour, whether you’re Conservative.”
His intervention comes with Ms Reeves’s
last Budget, which raised taxes by £40bn, having been widely blamed for
suffocating economic growth.
In particular, the rise in National
Insurance contributions for employers has been blamed for a slowdown in
employment, with businesses choosing not to take on more staff as a result.
The Chancellor is now expected to go back
on a pledge not to increase taxes further this autumn after surging borrowing
costs blew a hole in the national finances.
Last month, The Telegraph revealed fears
among senior economists that the UK may even end up having to go cap in hand to
the IMF for a bailout.
Sir Mel said his meeting with Dr Laffer
had shown that “it’s time to sound the alarm for Britain” over the record-high
tax burden.
“The lesson of the Laffer curve is clear
and proven: if a tax gets pushed up too high, you don’t end up with more
revenue – you get less,” he wrote.
“This is not economic theory for the
classroom, but a fundamental truth consistently played out by history.
“There is a tipping point where higher
taxes suffocate a nation’s spirit of enterprise – and it’s time to sound the
alarm for Britain.”
More
Higher taxes will
not raise more money, Arthur Laffer warns Reeves
In other news.
China’s economy slowdown deepens in August with
retail sales, industrial output missing expectations
Published Sun, Sep 14 2025 10:12 PM EDT
China’s economic slowdown deepened in
August with a raft of key indicators missing expectations, as weak domestic
demand persisted and Beijing’s campaign against industrial overcapacity curbed
output.
Retail sales last month rose 3.4% from a
year earlier, data from the National Bureau of Statistics showed Monday,
missing analysts’ estimates for a 3.9% growth in a Reuters poll and slowing
from July’s 3.7% growth.
Industrial output growth slowed to 5.2% in
August, compared to the 5.7% jump in July, marking its weakest level since
August 2024, according to LSEG data. Economists had expected the data to be
unchanged from the previous month.
Fixed-asset investment, reported on a
year-to-date basis, expanded just 0.5%, a sharp slowdown from the 1.6%
expansion in the January to July period, and undershooting economists’
forecasts for a 1.4% growth.
Within that segment, the contraction
in real estate investment worsened, slumping 12.9% in the first eight
months, government data showed. Investment in the manufacturing and utilities
sector — including electricity, fuel and water supplies — increased 5.1% and
18.8% from a year earlier, respectively.
The fixed-asset investments in
manufacturing have seen “modest and uneven growth,” said Yuhan Zhang, principal
economist at think-tank The Conference Board’s China Center, citing weak real
estate activities from private developers and growth in policy-driven state
investment in infrastructure, high-tech and industrial upgrading.
China’s survey-based urban unemployment
rate in August came in at 5.3%, edging higher from 5.2% in the prior month. The
statistics bureau attributed the rise in the jobless rate to the graduation
season.
“We should be aware that there are many
unstable and uncertain factors in (the) external environment, and national
economic development is still confronted with multiple risks and challenges,”
the statistics bureau said in an English-language release.
“We must fully implement macro policies,
focus on keeping employment, businesses, market…expectations stable, deepen
reform and opening up and innovation, so as to foster steady and healthy
economic development.”
More
China's
economy slowdown deepens in August with retail sales, industrial output missing
expectations
Fitch Downgrades Crisis-Strained France
Sept. 12, 2025, at 5:11 p.m
PARIS (Reuters) - Credit rating agency
Fitch downgraded France's sovereign credit score on Friday to the country's
lowest level on record, stripping the euro zone's second-largest economy of its
AA- status as it grapples with political crisis and ballooning debt.
The move, bringing Fitch's score to A+,
heaps pressure on Prime Minister Sebastien Lecornu just days into the job as he
scrambles to form a cabinet and draft a 2026 budget that can pass a deeply
divided parliament.
The rating, the lowest on record for a
major credit rating agency, has a stable outlook for future moves, Fitch said,
attributing its cut to the lack of "a clear horizon for debt stabilisation
in subsequent years".
The downgrade was already priced into
markets, analysts said. But the timing of the move is awkward for France, and
underlines growing investor concerns over its ability to rein in its budget
deficit - now the highest in the euro zone.
President Emmanuel Macron this week tapped
Lecornu, a conservative loyalist, to form a government after lawmakers ousted
veteran centrist François Bayrou in a confidence vote over his plans for a 44
billion euro ($52 billion) budget squeeze.
Lecornu became Macron's fifth prime
minister in less than two years, and faces a near-impossible task to pass a
slimmed-down budget through parliament - ordeals that led to the defenestration
of France's last two prime ministers.
"This instability weakens the
political system's capacity to deliver substantial fiscal consolidation,"
Fitch said in a statement.
Finance Minister Eric Lombard said he had
taken note of Fitch's move and that Lecornu was pushing ahead with
consultations with lawmakers to get a budget adopted and restore the public
finances.
Fitch's downgrade to an A+ score is more
consequential than recent downgrades as it could presage peers to follow suit,
potentially leading to forced selling of French bonds by investors bound by
ratings thresholds.
More
Fitch Downgrades
Crisis-Strained France
Global Inflation/Stagflation/Recession
Watch.
Given
our Magic Money Tree central banksters and our spendthrift politicians,
inflation now needs an entire section of its own.
Beef
Prices Are at a Record. The Winners: Cattle Ranchers
After
years of struggles, and shrinking the U.S. beef supply, cattle raisers are
raking in cash
Updated
Sept. 13, 2025 9:51 am ET
Business
hasn’t been this good for cattle ranchers in decades, maybe ever. Herds are
thin and beef demand is strong, helping send prices for everything from ground
beef to steaks to record
levels.
Ranchers
are putting some of their windfall toward upgrading long-neglected equipment.
Others are paying off longstanding debts.
Shaun
Loughery is pouring his earnings into bull semen.
In
past years, he has spent around $120,000 annually on semen and breeding
bulls.
The idea is to produce cattle that can yield juicier steaks—and fetch higher
prices. This year, Loughery plans to double his typical investment.
And
even though his profit is up roughly 35% compared with last year, he isn’t
taking a vacation. He’s doing ultrasounds on his pregnant cows, known as bred
heifers.
Loughery
is a sixth-generation Nebraska cowboy who has run his family’s Milldale Ranch
for almost 20 years. He has about 1,000 cattle on 20,000 acres. Like many other
cattlemen, he typically loses money or barely breaks even almost every
year.
“I’m
enjoying these good times,” he said.
For
now, ranchers like the 50-year-old Loughery are emerging as winners in American
agriculture.
Grain
farmers, hit by trade
wars and a
bumper crop,
are projected to lose money this year and have privately sought commitments
from government officials for a bailout if tough conditions persist. Meanwhile,
cattlemen are now making a record profit of more than $700 per animal, up from
$2 five years ago, according to some industry estimates.
Ranchers
across the Great Plains and elsewhere started
selling off their cattle several years ago as drought conditions dried up
grazing pastures. Losses
that racked up during
the Covid-19 pandemic, coupled with persistent inflation and high interest
rates, compounded their economic woes. Many ranchers have since held back from
increasing the size of their herds.
The
supply crunch has
hit meat processors,
restaurant chains and consumers. The U.S. Department of Agriculture estimates
that beef production will fall by about 4% this year. Retail
ground-beef prices set
a record in August, up about 13% from the same month last year, according to
federal data.
More
Beef Prices Are at
a Record. The Winners: Cattle Ranchers - WSJ
Coffee
prices haven’t surged this much in decades
September
12, 2025
Coffee
drinkers are in for a jolt long before their first sip.
Retail coffee
prices in
the United States in August jumped nearly 21% compared to the same month last
year — the largest annual jump since October 1997, according to the latest
Consumer Price Index, released Thursday. On a monthly basis, coffee prices rose
4%, the most in 14 years.
Coffee drinkers have
President Donald Trump’s tariffs to blame, in part. The United States is
largest importer of coffee in the world and it relies on foreign countries for
the beans, given there are very few places it can grow domestically. Nearly all
– 99% – of coffee consumed in the United States is imported, according to
the National
Coffee Association.
One
of the most heavily-tariffed countries is Brazil, which is the United States’
top source for coffee, according to US Department of Agriculture data.
Brazilian imports face 50% tariffs, among the
highest that the US levies on any country’s goods, because of Trump’s anger
over the trial and recent conviction of former
President Jair Bolsonaro, a Trump ally.
Diane
Swonk, chief economist at KPMG, predicts coffee prices “will easily exceed the
record as the full effects of the 50% tariffs levied on Brazil last month work
their way onto store shelves.”
Other
coffee bean-growing countries are also being slammed with tariffs. Colombia,
the second-biggest exporter based on net weight, has a 10% tariff, and Vietnam,
the third-biggest, has a 20% tariff.
Big
brands and small shops have been trying to absorb the costs, but consumers’
luck with prices appears to have run out.
Folgers’
owner J.M. Smucker’s warned on its earnings call last month that it will likely
hike coffee prices of its retail coffee products, which also includes Café
Bustelo, for the third time this winter. It first raised prices in May and then
again in August.
In
New Orleans, a local chain called “French Truck Coffee” has added a 4%
tariff surcharge on
orders to offset the rising prices.
However,
Starbucks is a holdout for now. The company said on its July earnings call that
because of its buying practices, “coffee tariff impacts lag the market with
year over year coffee cost increases expected to peak in the 2026,” executives
said.
Coffee prices
haven’t surged this much in decades | CNN Business
Covid-19
Corner
This
section will continue only occasionally when something of interest occurs.
Technology
Update.
With events happening fast in the
development of solar power and graphene, among other things, I’ve added this
section. Updates as they get reported.
Wind and solar power fuel over one-third of Brazil's electricity
for first time
STEVEN GRATTAN Thu, September 11, 2025 at 11:01 AM GMT+1
BOGOTA, Colombia (AP) — Wind and solar power generated
more than a third of Brazil’s electricity
in August, the first month on record the two renewable sources have crossed
that threshold, according to government data made public on Thursday and
analyzed by energy think tank Ember.
The clean energy sources accounted for 34% of the country’s
electricity generation last month, producing a monthly record of 19
terawatt-hours (TWh), enough to power about 119 million average Brazilian homes
for a month, Ember told The Associated Press.
That surpassed the previous high of 18.6 TWh set in September
2024. The milestone came as hydroelectric output, Brazil’s dominant power
source, fell to a four-year low.
“Brazil shows how a rapidly growing economy can meet its rising
need for electricity with solar and wind,” said Raul Miranda, Ember’s global
program director based in Rio de Janeiro.
“Solar and wind are a perfect match for Brazil’s hydropower
resources, taking the pressure off in drought years. A diversified mix is a
fundamental strategy for tackling risks related to climate change," he
said.
Hydropo wer dips, fossil fuels stay low
Hydropower provided 48% of electricity in August, only the second
month on record it has supplied less than half of Brazil’s power. Despite the
weak hydro output, fossil fuel plants, mainly powered by natural gas, coal and
oil, accounted for just 14% of generation, or 7.8 TWh. In past drought years,
fossil fuel use has spiked to cover shortfalls, reaching 26% in August 2021.
Ember said the rapid growth of wind and solar helped Brazil avoid
similar surges this year.
Wind and solar power are also reshaping the country’s energy mix.
In 2024, they generated 24% of Brazil’s electricity, more than double their
share from five years earlier. Solar power grew from just over 1% of generation
in 2019 to 9.6% in 2024, while wind climbed from 8.8% to 15% over the same
period.
More
Wind and solar
power fuel over one-third of Brazil's electricity for first time
Next, the
world global debt clock. Nations debts to GDP compared.
World Debt Clocks (usdebtclock.org)
Some debts are fun while you are acquiring them, But none are
fun when you set about retiring them.
Ogden Nash
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