Baltic
Dry Index. 2558 +206 Brent Crude 114.82
Spot Gold 1981 Wheat 11.93 -58.50
Coronavirus Cases 02/04/20 World 1,000,000
Deaths 53,100
Coronavirus Cases 10/03/22 World 451,809,254
Deaths 6,043,977
I never
attempt to make money on the stock market. I buy on the assumption that they
could close the market the next day and not reopen it for ten years.
Warren
Buffett.
With “peace talks” due to take place in Turkey today between
the Foreign Ministers of Russia and the Ukraine, it was time for “profit taking”
in many commodities, now that the margin call panic buying was over.
Still, while peace is unlikely, an uneasy truce might just
be possible, given what seems to be a new stance on joining NATO coming out of
Kiev. In this most unnecessary war, we wish Turkey, Russia and Ukraine every success
in ending this appalling new European war.
Every European war since the Franco-Prussian war in 1870-71
has widened before ending, with two of them going on to become disastrous World
Wars.
This
old commodities dinosaur well remembers the manic commodities markets of the
inflationary 70s, where markets went limit up, limit up, limit down.
This
time round we have a grains and food oils shock on top of an oil shock. Far more
fiat money in circulation thanks to the Magic Money Tree forest discovered in
March 2020, plus vastly more computer and algo trading, while in the stock
casinos, the high frequency trading algos are specifically set up to front run
the order stream!
Since
most commodity trading is a zero sum game, meaning mostly there’s a loser for
every winner, it will be interesting to see where the losers come crashing out
of the sky as we approach month-end and end of quarter.
Asian shares surge as
Russia-Ukraine talks buoy sentiment March 10, 2022 2:26 AM GMT
BEIJING, March 10 (Reuters) - Asian
shares surged on Thursday, tracking Wall Street's gains as planned diplomatic
talks between Russia and Ukraine buoyed sentiment, although analysts warned the
rally could be susceptible to a sharp reversal as risks remain.
Oil prices also regained some
footing, having fallen more than 12% on the previous session as United Arab
Emirates pledged to support hiking oil output to ease mayhem in energy markets.
MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside
Japan (.MIAPJ0000PUS)
gained 1.6% in early trade. Japan's Nikkei (.N225) surged
3.4% while Australian shares (.AXJO) were up 1%.
Chinese blue chips (.CSI300) rose
1.96% while Hong Kong's Hang Seng index (.HSI) rallied
1.8%.
"Comments out of Russia and
Ukraine are leading to some hope that compromise is possible," said Ray
Attrill, Head of FX Strategy at National Australia Bank in a note on Thursday.
Russia's foreign minister Sergei Lavrov arrived in
Turkey ahead of planned talks on Thursday with his Ukrainian counterpart Dmytro
Kuleba for what will be the first meeting between the two since Russia invaded
Ukraine two weeks ago. read
more
Attrill added Ukraine's
accusation of Russia bombing a hospital in the city of Mariupol and fears of
radiation leaks at Ukraine nuclear sites could risk further retaliation from
Western nations.
U.S. crude ticked up 1.37% to $110.19 a barrel, while
Brent crude rose 2% to $113.2 per barrel.
European Union leaders will
phase out buying Russian oil, gas and coal, a draft declaration showed on
Thursday, as the bloc seeks to reduce its reliance on Russian sources of
energy. read
more
The United States banned oil and
gas imports from Russia on Tuesday, while Britain said it would phase out
Russian oil imports by the end of the year.
Higher energy prices will
reinforce expectations that the U.S. Federal Reserve will raise interest rates
by 25 basis points at its policy meeting next week to tame runaway inflation.
Data due later on Thursday is
expected to show U.S. consumer inflation racing at a 7.9% annualised clip,
according to a Reuters poll.
More
https://www.reuters.com/markets/europe/global-markets-wrapup-1-2022-03-10/
Nickel prices and oil uncertainty
show nobody is sure about anything right now March 8, 2022 Updated March 9,
2022
Commodity markets are struggling to catch up to a
world turned upside down by war and sweeping international sanctions against
Russia.
The London Metal Exchange, a key global price
setter for industrial metals, suspended nickel trading on Tuesday after prices
more than doubled. Wheat, copper and gold have also been on a tear, while oil,
the single most important commodity to the global economy, continued its
relentless climb after U.S. President Joe Biden banned the import of Russian
fossil fuels to the United States and Britain declared it would phase out
Russian oil by the end of the year.
The combination of an unpredictable war, expanding
sanctions and booming prices is resulting in an unprecedented wave of
uncertainty for commodity producers and investors.
True, there have been supply shocks before – the
oil crises of the 1970s being prime examples – but those typically affected
only single commodities and were the decisions of key suppliers such as the
Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC). It is difficult to recall
another case in which a major supplier of a wide range of raw materials was
abruptly shunned by its major customers.
“What we are seeing at the 50-year anniversary of
the 1973 OPEC supply shock is something similar but substantially worse – the
2022 Russia supply shock, which isn’t driven by the supplier but the consumer,”
Credit Suisse investment strategist Zoltan Pozsar warned in a note Tuesday.
The size of the Russian shock reflects the enormous
range of commodities the country produces.
“Russia’s central role in global commodities both
in depth and breadth is so significant that … the conflicts under way will be
transformative,” Edward Morse, global head of commodity research at Citigroup,
said in a presentation this past week.
Russia is the world’s third-largest oil producer
and the supplier of about 40 per cent of Europe’s natural gas. According to
Morgan Stanley, it also accounts for 12 per cent of global production of
high-grade nickel, a key ingredient in stainless steel and batteries.
Add in the economic impact of the Russian invasion
on Ukraine and the implications for world markets grow even larger. Together,
Russia and Ukraine are responsible for 28 per cent of global wheat exports, by
Citigroup’s estimate. They are also top-tier producers of myriad other
commodities ranging from fertilizers and barley to palladium and lumber.
Threaten that supply and many markets are left
looking into an abyss. The speed with which sanctions have been imposed on
Russia has stunned traders. The uncertain course of both sanctions and
central-bank policy only aggravates the uncertainty.
“Nothing sounds crazy any more,” wrote Michael
Tran, a commodity specialist at RBC Capital Markets, in a note Tuesday. He
added “it is not unfathomable for [oil] prices to rocket to US$200 a barrel by
summer, spur a recession and end the year close to US$50 a barrel.”
This is not his base case, he stressed, but it is
not out of the question, given the stresses in the oil market and the wider
economy.
Barring a negotiated peace in Ukraine, surging
commodity prices are likely to turn up the heat even higher on already red-hot
inflation readings in Canada and the U.S. But exactly how policy makers will
respond is open to question.
More
https://www.theglobeandmail.com/investing/markets/inside-the-market/article-nickel-and-oil-prices-show-nobody-is-sure-about-anything-right-now/
Chinese Tycoon Behind Big Nickel
Short Faces Billions in Losses ·
·
By Alfred Cang
and Jack Farchy March
8, 2022, 11:46 AM UTC Updated onMarch 8, 2022, 5:44 PM UTC
A Chinese tycoon who
built a massive short position in nickel futures is facing billions of dollars
in mark-to-market losses after this week’s unprecedented price spike, according
to people familiar with the matter.
Xiang Guangda -- who controls the world’s largest nickel
producer, Tsingshan Holding Group Co., and is known as “Big Shot” in Chinese
commodity circles -- has closed out part of his company’s short position and is
considering whether to exit the wager altogether, the people said. Nickel
rocketed to a record high above $100,000 a ton on Tuesday, driven in part by
Tsingshan and its brokers’ activity, before trading was suspended .
More
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-03-08/chinese-tycoon-behind-big-nickel-short-faces-billions-in-losses
Analysts warn of recession if oil
prices continue to surge further into ‘uncharted territory’ Published Wed, Mar 9 2022 1:33 AM EST
The U.S. ban on Russian oil could exacerbate
already-spiking oil and food prices, analysts warned, and that could set off a
recession if escalated further.
If Russia retaliates by refusing to supply Europe with oil,
that could “easily” send oil prices up another $20 to $30 per barrel, said Andy
Lipow, president of Lipow Oil Associates. Moscow previously threatened to cut
Europe off from its gas supplies if Western countries targeted its energy
sector.
After President Joe Biden announced a ban on Russian fossil
imports Tuesday, U.S. crude traded above $128 per barrel, while Brent jumped
above $130 before paring gains. The U.K. and European Union also said they
would phase
out Russian fossil fuels . Prices had already been soaring in recent weeks,
surging to highs not seen since 2008.
“My greatest fear is that these prices have risen so fast
that you cause a recession in Europe and Latin America, that rolls on into the
United States, that ultimately affects China’s ability to sell consumer goods
to the rest of the world,” he told CNBC’s “Squawk Box Asia” on Wednesday.
Russia supplies 11% of global oil consumption, 17% of
global gas consumption and as much as 40% of Western European gas consumption
as of 2021, according to statistics from Goldman Sachs.
In a worst case scenario, a complete
ban on Russian energy imports in all major consuming countries would “severely
reduce and disrupt energy supply,” sending prices further into “uncharted
territory,” wrote Caroline Bain, chief commodities economist at Capital
Economics.
“Inflation in advanced economies
would end the year at around 5% as opposed to the 2.4% we forecast prior to the
invasion, and the effects of the drop in households’ spending power and power
rationing in Europe would push the euro-zone into recession,” Bain wrote
in a Monday note.
More
https://www.cnbc.com/2022/03/09/analysts-on-inflation-recession-after-russian-oil-bans.html
Fitch warns investors to brace
for heavy losses on Russian debt as default looms Wednesday 09
March 2022 10:54 am
One of the world’s top credit rating
agencies has told investors in Russian debt to brace for severe losses.
Fitch last night downgraded Moscow
sovereign debt to a C rating, meaning the risk of a Russian default is
“imminent”.
President Vladimir Putin’s decision
to order all interest payments on sovereign government debt held by foreign
investors in roubles has stepped up the likelihood of Russia failing to meet
its liabilities.
The rouble has plunged to record
lows against the dollar since the Kremlin sent troops into Ukraine, meaning
investors holding dollar or euro-denominated Russian debt are highly likely to
book heavy losses due to the dismal exchange rate.
Moscow’s retaliation to Western
sanctions has “further undermined Russia’s willingness to service government
debt,” Fitch said.
“The further ratcheting up of
sanctions, and proposals that could limit trade in energy, increase the
probability of a policy response by Russia that includes at least selective
non-payment of its sovereign debt obligations,” the firm added.
An alliance of Western countries has
locked top Russian banks out of the Swift payments system, hitting the health
of Russia’s financial system.
A large proportion of Russia’s
central bank’s dollar, euro and gold reserves – seen before the invasion as a
means allowing Putin to protect the rouble and the Russian economy – have been
frozen.
More
https://www.cityam.com/fitch-warns-investors-to-brace-for-heavy-losses-on-russian-debt-as-default-looms/
Finally,
in too little too late, why wasn’t this war diplomatically avoided? Why have so
many died and so much property destroyed? For what? President Macron was right
with diplomacy, so who blocked him? Why?
Ukraine's Zelensky says he has
'cooled' on joining NATO and is open to discussions about control of
Russian-backed separatist regions Natalie
Musumeci, Abbie Shull Tue, March 8, 2022, 6:17 PM
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said that he had
"cooled down" about Ukraine's bid to join NATO amid Russia's war with the Eastern European country .
"Regarding NATO, I have cooled down regarding this
question long ago after we understood that NATO is not prepared to accept
Ukraine," Zelensky told ABC News in an exclusive interview that aired Monday
night.
Zelensky added: "The alliance is afraid of
controversial things and confrontation with Russia. I never wanted to be a
country which is begging something on its knees. We are not going to be that
country, and I don't want to be that president."
Ukraine's pursuit of NATO membership has been cited by
Russian President Vladimir Putin as a justification for his decision to invade
Ukraine.
In 2008, Ukraine applied to begin a NATO Membership Action Plan , and the alliance welcomed Ukraine's bid , pledging that the country
would eventually become a member, while declining to offer a timeline.
In addition to his NATO comments, Zelensky said on Tuesday that he was open to discussions about the
control of Russian-backed separatist regions in eastern Ukraine, which could be
an opening for peace talks with Russia.
"It is important to me how people who want to be part
of Ukraine will live there. I am interested in the opinion of those who see
themselves as citizens of the Russian Federation. However, we must discuss this
issue," Zelensky said.
More
https://www.yahoo.com/news/ukraines-zelensky-says-cooled-joining-181721289.html
The Geographical Pivot of History "The Geographical Pivot of History "
is an article submitted by Halford John Mackinder in 1904 to the Royal Geographical Society that advances
his heartland theory .[1] [2] [3] geopolitical
analysis to encompass the entire globe.
More
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Geographical_Pivot_of_History
Who rules East Europe commands the
Heartland;
Halford
J. Mackinder, Democratic Ideals and Reality, 1919.
Global Inflation/Stagflation Watch.
Given our Magic Money Tree central banksters and our spendthrift
politicians, inflation now needs an
entire section of its own.
CBI calls for more government
help for businesses and consumers to pay energy bills Thursday 10
March 2022 12:01 am
The government must provide more direct support for
businesses and consumers dealing with a coming surge in energy prices after the
Russian invasion of Ukraine, one of the UK’s top business bodies has said.
The Confederation of British Industry (CBI) today urged the
government to “support energy intensive industries that lie at the heart of our
critical supply chains but are threatened by soaring prices”, adding that “the government
will need to think urgently about consumers as bills go higher still later in
the year”.
CBI director-general Tony Danker also called for the
government to bring forward more “investment tax deductions” to boost private
sector investment.
Energy bills had already been
spiralling since autumn last year and it is expected to get much worse in light
of UK and EU decisions to reduce their Russian energy exports.
Energy UK predicts Ofgem’s energy
price cap, which sets a ceiling on household energy bills, will increase from
£1,971 a year to £3,000 a year.
Comparison site TheEnergyShop.com is
warning the price cap could get as high as £3,750 – a more than £2,500 increase
in bills compared to October 2021.
Calls are growing louder for the
government to provide more financial assistance, after already outlining a £9bn
plan in January to give households at least £350 this year to help with their
energy bills.
There have also been calls for
financial support for manufacturing businesses that use high amounts of energy
and do not benefit from a regulated price cap.
“We need to recognise immediately
the looming crisis in domestic and business energy bills,” Danker said.
“We need to move immediately towards
energy efficiency in homes to dampen down demand. And government will need to
think urgently about consumers’ as bills go higher still later in the
year.
“We also need to support energy
intensive industries that lie at the heart of our critical supply chains but
are threatened by soaring prices.”
More
https://www.cityam.com/cbi-calls-for-more-government-help-for-businesses-and-consumers-to-pay-energy-bills/
Consumer inflation was likely
high in February, and rising fuel prices will turn up the pressure Published
Wed, Mar 9 2022 3:25 PM EST
Updated 4 Hours Ago
February’s consumer price index is the last important look
at inflation before Federal Reserve officials meet next week, and it’s going to
be a scorcher.
Economists expect headline inflation rose 0.7% last month,
or 7.8% on an annualized basis, according to estimates from Dow Jones. That’s
compared to January’s
increase of 0.6% or 7.5% year over year . Excluding energy and food, core
CPI was expected to be up 0.5%, below January’s 0.6% gain. Core inflation is
expected to be 6.4% year over year, up from 6%. CPI is released Thursday at
8:30 a.m. ET.
The
data is especially important to markets because it is the last major economic
report for the Fed to consider before it begins its two-day meeting, starting
Tuesday. Regardless of what the data shows, the central bank is widely expected
to raise interest rates by a quarter point from zero, the first in a series of
expected rate hikes.
More
https://www.cnbc.com/2022/03/09/consumer-inflation-was-likely-high-in-february-and-rising-fuel-prices-will-turn-up-the-pressure.html
Russia to restrict raw materials
in retaliation against Western oil and gas sanctions Wednesday 09
March 2022 11:20 am
Russia has announced plans to
restrict the trade of goods and raw materials, in response to the US and UK
imposing bans on its oil and gas supplies yesterday.
The Kremlin issued the order last
night, but is yet to provide details on which products will be affected as part
of the retaliatory measure against the West.
Russian President Vladimir Putin has
instructed the cabinet to define the items, and prepare a list of countries
that restrictions will apply to over the next two days.
The country is a major exporter of
energy sources such as oil, gas, and coal, alongside metals like gold,
palladium, steel, nickel, aluminium, cobalt and copper.
Commodity prices have surged amid
fears of supply shortages, following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, with natural
gas prices hitting record highs in the UK and Europe, oil prices have soared to
$130 per barrel, while gold has peaked above $2,000 per ounce.
Meanwhile, the London Metal Exchange
was forced to suspend trading in nickel – with markets remaining closed – as
prices doubled over one morning to $100,000 per tonne.
Aside from limits on taking currency
out of the country, Russia’s retaliatory measures have been vague since its
invasion of Ukraine.
The country has committed to selling
gas to world markets, however Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak has warned
Russia could off supplies to the West if the country is hit with energy
sanctions, including threats to restrict gas supplies to Europe through the
Nord Stream 1 pipeline.
More
https://www.cityam.com/russia-to-restrict-raw-materials-in-retaliation-against-western-oil-and-gas-sanctions/
Covid-19 Corner
This
section will continue until it becomes unneeded.
Pfizer starts trial of COVID-19
antiviral pill for children March 9, 2022 /
10:52 AM
March 9 (UPI) -- Pfizer has started a Phase 2/3 study for its Paxlovid antiviral
COVID-19 pill for kids aged 6 to 17, the company said Wednesday.
Pfizer said in a press statement that Paxlovid
(nirmatrelvir and ritonavir tablets) is the first oral therapy specifically
designed to combat COVID-19 to be evaluated in a pediatric clinical study.
"Since the beginning of the
pandemic, more than 11 million children under the age of 18 in the United
States alone have tested positive for COVID-19, representing nearly 18% of
reported cases and leading to more than 100,000 hospital admissions," said
Mikael Dolsten, chief scientific officer of Pfizer.
Dolsten said there's a significant
unmet need for outpatient treatments that can be taken by children and
adolescents to help prevent progression to severe illness, including
hospitalization or death.
Paxlovid is already authorized for
use in many countries around the world for people 12 and over, with more than
1.5 million treatment courses delivered thus far and 30 million expected by
July to help combat COVID-19.
Pfizer said the Phase 2/3 trial
includes approximately 140 pediatric participants under 18.
The company said it's also working
"to develop an age-appropriate formulation for three additional planned
cohorts of younger than 6 years old."
According
to Pfizer, study data for high-risk adults showed Paxlovid cut risk of
hospitalization or death by 89% within three days of symptom onset and by 88%
when given within five days of symptom onset.
https://www.upi.com/Top_News/US/2022/03/09/pfizer-covid19-antiviral-pediatric-study/6301646839464/
Covid hospital admissions rising
across the UK ‘likely due to waning immunity among older people’ In all areas except the south west of England, Covid patients
remain well below the January peak, but the latest figures are likely to fuel
calls for the fourth booster shot – due to be rolled out in April – to be
brought forward
March 8, 2022 7:07 pm(Updated March 9, 2022 8:50 am)
Waning immunity from booster shots among the elderly and
vulnerable is likely to be behind a sudden uptick in
hospital admissions of people with Covid over the
past week, public health officials believe.
Hospitalisations are rising in all seven English NHS
regions, Scotland and Wales, after a period of decline since the start of
January.
In south west England, admissions are higher than they were
at the peak of the Omicron wave in January. Other areas that are seeing an
increase are still well below their January peak, however.
While details are yet to be confirmed, most of those being
admitted are older patients, a source involved in the government’s pandemic
response said.
Public health experts and scientists do not believe a new
variant is behind the rise, with nothing unusual detected in analysis of
samples. While a new variant is expected at some point, “right now it’s still
Omicron’s pandemic,” one scientist said.
Scientists have, however, identified for the first time a combination of
the Delta and Omicron variants in cases in parts of France, the Netherlands
and Denmark.
The so-called “recombinant virus” – likely to be dubbed
“Deltacron” – is derived from the parent lineages of Delta and Omicron.
It is not known whether its
properties make it more contagious or severe than either Delta or Omicron, and
there is no suggestion yet that it is present in the UK.
The increase in hospital admissions
will fuel calls for the government’s rollout of a fourth Covid vaccine for the
over-75s and clinically vulnerable, currently planned to start in early April,
to be brought forward.
The spring dose is supposed to be
six months after an individual’s third jab, although some of them will be due
this month as they had their booster shots in September.
More
https://inews.co.uk/news/politics/covid-hospital-admissions-rising-across-uk-waning-immunity-older-people-1505560
Why have some people never caught
Covid? The answers could help protect us all Zania Stamataki
I’m a Covid researcher, but I’ve never tested positive.
Studying variations in immune systems could lead to better vaccines
Mon 7 Mar 2022 08.00 GMT
I’m one of the fortunate people who
is yet to test positive for Covid. This is despite the fact that I work with
live replicating Sars-CoV-2 (the virus that causes Covid) for my research,
teach face-to-face at university, and have school-age children.
My fully vaccinated healthy friends of the same age were
not so lucky, and some have suffered from more than one case of Covid in the
past couple of years. What does this reveal about my immune system?
First, we have to consider a number of scenarios. There is
a very small chance that I have never come into contact with the virus. But
given the duration of the pandemic, and the number of highly transmissible
variants, this is unlikely. Then there is the chance that I have come into
contact with Sars-CoV-2, but it was cleared from my body quickly before it
developed into the disease Covid (abortive infection). At the start of the
pandemic, and before I was vaccinated, I could have caught the virus but I
could have been one of the small number of people who did not display symptoms
and therefore did not test for it.
Some people may clear the virus quickly because they have
pre-existing antibodies and memory immune cells that recognise the virus. These
could be cross-reactive
memory T-cells generated previously to fight similar coronaviruses that
cause the common cold. There is evidence of higher prevalence of endemic
(non-Covid) coronavirus infections in the
young and reduced cross-reactive T-cell presence in older people .
More
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2022/mar/07/never-caught-covid-immune-systems-vaccines
Next, some vaccine links
kindly sent along from a LIR reader in Canada.
NY
Times Coronavirus Vaccine Tracker . https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/science/coronavirus-vaccine-tracker.html
Regulatory
Focus COVID-19 vaccine tracker . https://www.raps.org/news-and-articles/news-articles/2020/3/covid-19-vaccine-tracker
Some other useful Covid links.
Johns Hopkins Coronavirus
resource centre
https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/map.html
Rt Covid-19
https://rt.live/
Centers for Disease Control
Coronavirus
https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/index.html
The Spectator
https://data.spectator.co.uk/city/national
Technology Update.
With events happening
fast in the development of solar power and graphene, I’ve added this section.
Updates as they get reported.
China plans a mammoth 450 GW of
wind and solar in its deserts By Loz Blain March 07, 2022
China
already dominates renewable energy production. Its installed capacity of around
895 GW in 2020 was more than the European Union, the USA
and Australia combined. And while the world in general is accelerating its
transition to renewable power, China
is growing its capacity faster than anyone else
as well.
Now,
according to Reuters, it's got a series of mammoth solar and wind projects in
the pipeline that will expand its current capacity by nearly half a terawatt.
"China is going to build the
biggest scale of solar and wind power generation capacity on the Gobi and
desert in history, at 450 GW," said He Lifeng, director of the National
Development and Reform Commission (NDRC), on the sidelines of the National
People's Congress in Beijing on Saturday.
About 100 GW of this new capacity is
already under construction, adding to 306 GW of solar capacity and 328 GW of
wind capacity that were already installed by the end of 2021. Chinese president
Xi Jinping has pledged to get wind and solar capacity over 1.2 terawatts by
2030, as part of the country's plan to see its carbon emissions peak and begin
to decline around the same time.
Coal
will continue to support China's energy grids for the time being. While some
43.5 percent of the country's total installed capacity – or more
than a terawatt by last October – is now renewable,
intermittency issues and capacity factors have kept the percentage of actual
power that's generated by renewables closer to 26 percent, with most of the
rest being coal-fired. Still, this compares favorably to other major economies,
and it'll continue to grow steadily as these enormous planned resources come
online.
https://newatlas.com/energy/china-450-gw-wind-solar/?utm_source=New+Atlas+Subscribers&utm_campaign=60b63ec9bf-EMAIL_CAMPAIGN_2022_03_08_09_07&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_65b67362bd-60b63ec9bf-90625829
If goods don't cross borders, armies will.
Frederic Bastiat.
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