December 7, 2020 12:27 AM By Swati Pandey SYDNEY (Reuters) - Asian shares retreated from a record peak on Monday after a Reuters report the United States was preparing to impose sanctions on some Chinese officials highlighted geopolitical tensions, while oil prices fell on surging virus cases. MSCI’s broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan fell 0.3% following four straight sessions of gains. It is still up about 16% so far this year, the best since a 33% jump in 2017. China’s blue-chip index dropped 0.8%, largely ignoring strong export data, while Hong Kong’s Hang Seng was down 1.8%. Japan’s Nikkei declined 0.4% while Australian shares were up 0.4%. E-Mini futures for the S&P 500 were down 0.2% after starting higher. The sell-off began after Reuters exclusively reported, citing sources, that the United States was preparing sanctions on at least a dozen Chinese officials over their alleged role in Beijing’s disqualification of elected opposition legislators in Hong Kong. The move comes as President Donald Trump’s administration keeps up pressure on Beijing in his final weeks in office. “One thing that the market has been concerned about is that on his ‘Out of office’ Trump would look for some retribution on China. So this news speaks to that fear,” said Kyle Rodda, market strategist at IG Markets in Melbourne. “At the end of the day, the market knows he only has six weeks left. The broader focus is still on vaccine roll-outs and U.S. fiscal stimulus.” Asian markets had initially started higher on hopes of a faster global recovery as coronavirus vaccines get rolled out, starting this week in Britain. More https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-global-markets/asian-shares-ease-from-record-high-oil-falls-on-virus-case-surge-idUKKBN28H00Z?il=0 A popular stock-market indicator flashes red as Dow soars to records Friday Last Updated: Dec. 4, 2020 at 8:14 p.m. ET First Published: Dec. 4, 2020 at 12:36 p.m. ET An often-cited measure of stock valuations, popularized by Warren Buffett, is affirming a growing fear on Wall Street: equity prices are richer than their fundamental underpinnings. The so-called “Buffett indicator” measures the market capitalization of the Wilshire 5000 Total Market W5000, +1.04%, against that of the latest reading of gross domestic product in the third quarter, which stands at $21.16 trillion, as one measure of stock valuations. The Wilshire 5000 is used as a gauge of the total value of the U.S. equity market, which would stand at $38.704 trillion, per the index reading as of midday Friday. Dividing the total market cap against third-quarter’s GDP read translates to a reading of 182.91, which by some estimates is near the highest measure of equity values in history. An article by Yahoo Finance in August recently noted that the indicator averages around 93 and 114 and that the second-quarter of 2020 represented a recent peak of 182.7. Market technicians say a reading of 70 to 80 represents a good time to invest in the market, while one at or over 100 suggests it is time to get out or stop buying. To be sure, the Buffett yardstick, which the Berkshire Hathaway BRK.A, +0.11% boss previously hailed as “the best single measure of where valuations stand at any given moment,” has been flagged numerous times during this recent post-pandemic rally, as a worrisome sign that markets are getting ahead of themselves and overly hyped up on COVID-19 vaccine progress. MarketWatch has highlighted the indicator nearly a dozen times in the past few months, as a metric that presaged the 2001 crash. That said, this latest reading comes as the chorus of folks talking about lofty stock valuations is growing. Indeed, according to Deutsche Bank strategist Jim Reid, the recent run-up in U.S. stocks has taken markets “above the level seen on the eve of the 1929 stock market crash and the recent peak in January 2018,” citing the CAPE ratio of price-to-earnings created in part by Robert Shiller. U.S. market action, however, has been unperturbed, rising to records unabated on the hope that a fresh round of coronavirus relief from Washington lawmakers will come to fruition, helping to fortify the virus-stricken economy. On Friday, the Dow Jones Industrial Average DJIA, +0.83%, the S&P 500 index SPX, +0.88% and the Nasdaq Composite Index COMP, +0.70% all finished at all-time highs. Shiller himself indicated that there could be a sound reason why stocks continue to defy gravity and market-cap logic, noting in commentary in MarketWatch from Project Syndicate that the current dynamic “confirms the relative attractiveness of equities, particularly given a potentially protracted period of low interest rates.” https://www.marketwatch.com/story/a-popular-stock-market-indicator-flashes-red-as-dow-soars-to-records-friday-11607103399 Next, more on the decline and fall of Hong Kong. Former Hong Kong lawmaker Ted Hui says his bank accounts frozen December 6, 2020 9:09 AM By Reuters Staff HONG KONG (Reuters) - Former Hong Kong lawmaker Ted Hui said on Sunday his local bank accounts appeared to have been frozen after fled to Britain with his family to continue his pro-democracy activities. Hui told Reuters via social media WhatsApp that bank accounts belonging to him, his wife and his parents at Bank of China Hong Kong, HSBC and Hang Seng Bank were frozen. He gave no further details. Democracy activists say conditions have worsened in the former British colony after China imposed security legislation on the financial hub in June, making anything Beijing regards as subversion, secession, terrorism or colluding with foreign forces punishable by up to life in prison. China, which promises Hong Kong a high degree of autonomy, denies curbing rights and freedoms, but authorities in Hong Kong and Beijing have moved swiftly to quash dissent after anti-government protests erupted last year and engulfed the city. Local media reported that at least five accounts worth hundreds of thousands of U.S. dollars belonging to Hui and his family had been inaccessible since Saturday. Hui contacted the banks and was told there were “remarks” placed on his accounts, but the staff refused to provide further information, Hong Kong’s South China Morning Post reported. “We do not comment on the details of individual accounts,” a Hang Seng Bank spokesman told Reuters by email. HSBC and Bank of China did not immediately respond to requests for comment. Hong Kong police said late on Sunday that they were investigating a Hong Kong person, who had absconded overseas with bank accounts being frozen, for suspected money laundering and possible violation of the new national security law. ---- Hui said on Thursday he had fled Hong Kong after facing criminal charges and would seek exile in Britain. One of the pro-democracy activists arrested last month and charged with disturbing legislature proceedings, Hui arrived in Copenhagen last week on an invitation from Danish lawmakers. Hong Kong’s Security Bureau issued a statement on Friday that, while not naming Hui, said “running away by jumping bail and using various excuses such as so-called ‘exile’ to avoid one’s responsibility is a shameful, hypocritical and cowardly act of recoil”. More https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-hongkong-security/former-hong-kong-lawmaker-ted-hui-says-his-bank-accounts-frozen-idUKKBN28G08C?il=0 Finally, life goes on outside of the chaotic rump-EUSSR where Brexit trade talks continue endlessly. Given that all 27 rump-EUSSR parliaments plus the EU parliament itself must ratify any potential trade treaty, the chance of getting an agreed trade deal are low and have been all along. Swiss approve agreement on service workers mobility with Britain December 4, 2020 11:41 AM By Reuters Staff ZURICH (Reuters) - Switzerland has approved an agreement to allow free movement of service workers between the country and Britain after Brexit, the Bern government said on Friday. The Services Mobility Agreement (SMA) between Switzerland and Britain regulates the mutual access and temporary stay of service suppliers, for example of management consultants, IT experts or engineers for up to 90 days per year. The agreement, which also contains provisions on the recognition of professional qualifications, replaces the current measures on free movement of people which lapses on Jan.1. https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-swiss-britain-workers/swiss-approve-agreement-on-service-workers-mobility-with-britain-idUKKBN28E1HK 'On a knife edge': Britain and EU in last-ditch trade talks December 5, 2020 9:05 PM Updated 6 hours ago By Estelle Shirbon, Padraic Halpin LONDON/DUBLIN (Reuters) - Britain and the European Union will make a last-ditch attempt to strike a post-Brexit trade deal this week, with probably just days left for negotiators to avert a chaotic parting of ways at the end of the year. Ireland’s prime minister, whose country would face more economic pain than any of the other 26 EU member states in the case of a “no deal”, cautioned against over-optimism, putting the chances of an agreement at only 50-50. British Prime Minister Boris Johnson and European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen spoke over the weekend to get their teams back to the negotiating table after talks stalled on three thorny issues. They are due to hold another call on Monday evening in the hope that, by then, stubborn differences over fishing rights in UK waters, fair competition and ways to solve future disputes will have narrowed. The Guardian newspaper reported after talks resumed on Sunday that there had been “a major breakthrough” on the rights of European fleets to fish in UK waters, leaving only a wrestle over how closely Britain should hew to EU environmental, social and labour standards over time to ensure a level playing field. A British government source said there had been no breakthrough on fishing rights on Sunday. EU officials did not immediately comment on the report. More https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-britain-eu-talks/on-a-knife-edge-britain-and-eu-in-last-ditch-trade-talks-idUKKBN28F0T0 Winter Watch. From around mid-October, the northern hemisphere snow cover usually rapidly expands, while the Arctic ice gradually expands back towards its winter maximum. Over simplified, a rapid expansion of both, especially if early, can be a sign of a harsher than normal arriving northern hemisphere winter. Perhaps more so in 2020-2021 as we’re in the low of the ending sunspot cycle, which possibly also influenced this year’s record Atlantic hurricane season. Update: we seem to have started new sunspot cycle 25 this month , though it’s unlikely to affect 2020-2021s coming winter. Northern Eur-Asia turned snowy fast in mid-October. The Arctic sea ice expansion was slow, and from a very low level at the end of September, but with the vastly expanded snow cover, sea ice formation sped up. With the Laptev sea ice virtually back to normal at the end of November I’m starting to think that it will likely be a normal to slightly warmer winter ahead for western Europe. The failure of the Kara Sea ice to return to normal, leads me to bet on a warmer western European winter ahead. Arctic and Antarctic Sea Ice. http://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/ https://www.natice.noaa.gov/pub/ims/ims_gif/DATA/cursnow_asiaeurope.gif “The world is a place that’s gone from being flat to round to crooked.” Mad Magazine. Covid-19 Corner This section will continue until it becomes unneeded. Vaccines Set to Launch; U.S. Hospitalizations Rise: Virus Update Bloomberg News December 6, 2020, 10:57 PM GMT Updated on December 7, 2020, 3:42 AM GMT
December 5, 2020 9:05 PM Updated 6 hours ago By Estelle Shirbon, Padraic Halpin LONDON/DUBLIN (Reuters) - Britain and the European Union will make a last-ditch attempt to strike a post-Brexit trade deal this week, with probably just days left for negotiators to avert a chaotic parting of ways at the end of the year. Ireland’s prime minister, whose country would face more economic pain than any of the other 26 EU member states in the case of a “no deal”, cautioned against over-optimism, putting the chances of an agreement at only 50-50. British Prime Minister Boris Johnson and European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen spoke over the weekend to get their teams back to the negotiating table after talks stalled on three thorny issues. They are due to hold another call on Monday evening in the hope that, by then, stubborn differences over fishing rights in UK waters, fair competition and ways to solve future disputes will have narrowed. The Guardian newspaper reported after talks resumed on Sunday that there had been “a major breakthrough” on the rights of European fleets to fish in UK waters, leaving only a wrestle over how closely Britain should hew to EU environmental, social and labour standards over time to ensure a level playing field. A British government source said there had been no breakthrough on fishing rights on Sunday. EU officials did not immediately comment on the report. More https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-britain-eu-talks/on-a-knife-edge-britain-and-eu-in-last-ditch-trade-talks-idUKKBN28F0T0 Winter Watch. From around mid-October, the northern hemisphere snow cover usually rapidly expands, while the Arctic ice gradually expands back towards its winter maximum. Over simplified, a rapid expansion of both, especially if early, can be a sign of a harsher than normal arriving northern hemisphere winter. Perhaps more so in 2020-2021 as we’re in the low of the ending sunspot cycle, which possibly also influenced this year’s record Atlantic hurricane season. Update: we seem to have started new sunspot cycle 25 this month , though it’s unlikely to affect 2020-2021s coming winter. Northern Eur-Asia turned snowy fast in mid-October. The Arctic sea ice expansion was slow, and from a very low level at the end of September, but with the vastly expanded snow cover, sea ice formation sped up. With the Laptev sea ice virtually back to normal at the end of November I’m starting to think that it will likely be a normal to slightly warmer winter ahead for western Europe. The failure of the Kara Sea ice to return to normal, leads me to bet on a warmer western European winter ahead. Arctic and Antarctic Sea Ice. http://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/ https://www.natice.noaa.gov/pub/ims/ims_gif/DATA/cursnow_asiaeurope.gif “The world is a place that’s gone from being flat to round to crooked.” Mad Magazine. Covid-19 Corner This section will continue until it becomes unneeded. Vaccines Set to Launch; U.S. Hospitalizations Rise: Virus Update Bloomberg News December 6, 2020, 10:57 PM GMT Updated on December 7, 2020, 3:42 AM GMT
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