Baltic Dry Index. 940 -14
LIR Gold Target in 2019: $30,000. Revised due to QE programs.
"I mean, look at other challenges. In the Ukraine, the
president put in place a very careful, calculated, calibrated strategy to bring
the Europeans along, to not go so far that you provoked Putin but you put in
place a policy that could work."
US Secretary of State John
Kerry. CNN May 28.
In World War
Three news today, in whose cause did these hapless Ukrainian pawns die. Who
staged the putch in Kiev that overthrew an elected, if corrupt President, who’d
already agreed with the European Union negotiators to effectively give up
power. What if he was bombing his own people, and burning unarmed protestors
alive in Odessa? Who paid for the putch,
and used neo-Nazis and anti-Semite militias to enforce the Kiev coup? Who incorporated the neo-Nazis militia into
the coup military under the rebranding as the National Guard? Who unleashed the
National Guard on East Ukraine?
Instead of
explanations from Washington, comes only propaganda, whining, and ruthless
demonization.
If World War Three starts, which nation(s) (yes UK and Germany) will
have blood on their hands, like Germany in WW1 and WW2? Is wiping out Manhattan
really a fair swap for Moscow? Chicago and LA, for St Petersburg? We are half
way down the road to MAD, and no one seems to care. Did the American War Party
really expect those silly Russians in east Ukraine to only use bows and arrows?
Rebels Kill 14 Downing Ukraine Chopper as Russia Sees War
May 29, 2014 4:41 PM
GMT
Pro-Russian rebels downed a military helicopter in eastern Ukraine, killing 13 troops and
a general, as an adviser to President Vladimir Putin accused
the U.S. of pushing the world toward war through proxies in Kiev. Insurgents shot down an Mi-8 transport chopper with a shoulder-fired missile amid heavy fighting in Slovyansk, 100 miles (160 kilometers) from the Russian border, Speaker Oleksandr Turchynov told parliament today. They also attacked a military base near Luhansk, according to the National Guard.
Russia demanded Ukraine halt its “fratricidal war” and withdraw troops from the mainly Russian-speaking regions of the east after separatists suffered the heaviest casualties of their campaign. Western countries should use their influence to stop Ukraine from “sliding into a national catastrophe,” the Foreign Ministry in Moscow said on its website.
Ukraine stepped up air patrols over Donetsk yesterday as a convoy of pro-Russian rebels moved through the eastern city with an anti-aircraft gun in tow, regrouping after dozens were killed in a government operation to retake the main airport.
President-elect Petro Poroshenko has vowed to wipe out the insurgents and re-establish order after winning office on May 25 with 54.7 percent of the vote. He’s faced with trying to stabilize an economy that the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development expects to shrink 7 percent this year while reclaiming swaths of territory captured by pro-Russian militias.
An economic adviser to Putin, Sergei Glazyev, said the U.S. controls the new Ukrainian government and is seeking to use the conflict to start a “third world war.”
“This can’t be called anything but madness -- the bombing of cities, airports, escalation of unmotivated violence against their own people,” Glazyev told reporters today in the Kazakh capital Astana.
Putin flew to Astana to sign a treaty with his counterparts from Kazakhstan and Belarus creating a trading bloc of more than 170 million people to challenge the U.S. and the European Union. Two other former Soviet staes, Kyrgyzstan and Armenia, plan to join the Eurasian Economic Union this year.
----Ukrainian forces used aviation and artillery assets to “destroy” the rebel unit that downed the helicopter today, the Interior Ministry’s National Guard unit said in a statement, without elaborating.
----“Russia is now our enemy,” First Deputy Minister Yuri Zyukov told reporters in Kiev. “It dictates and speaks in ultimatums we can’t accept.”
The standoff is threatening to escalate into a full-blown crisis, “undermining the sustainability of Russian gas transit to the EU through Ukraine,” Alexander Kornilov, an energy analyst at Alfa Bank in Moscow, said in an e-mailed note.
More
In other
Ukraine news, anarchy now seems to be breaking out. How much longer before
Russia intervenes like Vietnam in Cambodia, or America in Granada?
Ukraine's rebels in crisis after Donetsk 'coup'
Vostok Battalion, a pro-Russian group, seize control of Donetsk Peoples' Republic's headquarters, plunging rebel movement in east into crisis
By Roland Oliphant in Donetsk 8:27PM
BST 29 May 2014
Ukraine's
rebel movement was plunged into crisis on Thursday, when pro-Russian fighters
backed by armoured personnel carriers seized the movement's headquarters in
Donetsk and destroyed the barricades protecting it. The surprise move by a group called the Vostok Battalion, a heavily armed rebel unit that has been involved in fighting against the Ukrainian army, sparked speculation about an internal coup within the fractious rebel movement.
There was also speculation that the move could have been an attempt by the leadership to purge undesirable elements with the Donetsk Peoples' Republic.
Key rebel leaders, who were not in the building when the fighters arrived, insisted they were still in control and that they had even ordered the operation.
"This is a police action directed against looters," a rebel source close to Alexander Borodai, the prime minister of the self-declared republic, said on Thursday afternoon. "There is no coup. Everything is under control."
Gunmen from the battalion, which
includes fighters from mainland Russia as well as Ukrainian-born volunteers,
said they had acted out of disgust at the looting of a supermarket following
the battle for Donetsk airport on Monday.
"We're on the same side,
we're never going back to Ukraine. We're just against lawlessness and
theft," said one fighter as he picked through the chaos left behind by the
building's occupiers.
The 11-story regional
administration building has been the headquarters of the Donetsk rebel movement
since it was stormed and occupied by pro-Russian activists on April 6, sparking
the uprising that led to the current conflict in the region.
Since then it has been used
variously as the 'republic's' government headquarters, a parliament, a
hospital, a command centre, and most notoriously as a prison.
----In one office on the sixth floor a fridge was stocked with huge cheeses and sausages bearing the logo of the Metro supermarket, a superstore close to the airport that was reportedly raided by well-organised looters after Monday's battle brought life in the district to a standstill.
In other offices, fighters found
vast quantities of cigarettes, soft drinks, and shops own-brand socks and
underwear stacked on desks and in wardrobes.
"We were starving on the
battle field for two days," said a masked fighter, as he tested the
ripeness of several mangos looted from the fruit and vegetable department that
were scattered on a desk in a sixth floor office.
More
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/ukraine/10863933/Ukraines-rebels-in-crisis-after-Donetsk-coup.html
Makhnitsky: Prosecutor Generals Office asks Ukrainian parliament to arrest MP Tsariov
May 29, 2014, 2:59 p.m.
Verkhovna rada (Ukraine's
parliament) to meet on June 3 to decide on MP Tsariov's fate.
The Ukrainian Prosecutor
General's Office has asked the Verkhovna Rada to give its consent to hold
parliamentarian Oleh Tsariov criminally liable.
"The Ukrainian Prosecutor
General's Office has filed a request (with the Rada) on holding Ukrainian
people's deputy Oleh Tsariov criminally liable and on detaining and taking him
into custody as a restrictive measure," acting Ukrainian Prosecutor
General Oleh Makhnitsky said at the Rada on May 29.
https://www.kyivpost.com/content/ukraine/makhnitsky-prosecutor-generals-office-asks-ukrainian-parliament-to-arrest-mp-tsariov-349932.html
At least 18 western Ukrainians killed in eastern Ukraine war
May 29, 2014, 11:11 p.m
When a military plane carried the
bodies of 10 Ukrainian soldiers back to their native Volyn Oblast in western
Ukraine, even commanders couldn’t hide their tears. The victims were among at
least 18 servicemen killed on May 22, the bloodiest day yet for Ukraine forces
taking part in the nation’s anti-terrorist operation.
All killed that day in Donetsk
Oblast were ambushed by Kremlin-backed separatists who attacked a Ukrainian
military checkpoint near Volnovakha village. The casualties on the Ukrainian
side numbered at least 17 soldiers while another 33 were wounded, according to
official figures. All of the servicemen were from the 51st armored brigade. An
18th serviceman, also from western Ukraine, was killed in Luhansk Oblast on the
same day in a different fight.
More
https://www.kyivpost.com/content/ukraine/at-least-18-western-ukrainians-killed-in-eastern-ukraine-war-349999.html
In Asian
news, Abenomics is working in Japan, though not quite as forecast. While
destroying the currency and raising sales tax has inflation surging, industrial
production is falling as the global economy stalls and picking a fight with
next door China has exports struggling, while household spending collapsed
after Japan’s consumers wisely bought goods ahead of the sales tax increase.
Those Japanese consumers are not as dumb as they looked to Japanese
politicians. Will hints of another rise in sales tax coming, fool the Japanese
consumer into spending again, or is it a case of how many fridges, washing
machines. dishwashers, and flatscreen tvs does the Japanese consumer need?
Japan Inflation Quickens to Fastest Since 1991
May 30, 2014 6:11 AM GMT
Japan’s industrial production (JNIPMOM) and household
spending fell more than forecast and inflation surged to a 23-year high on a
tax rise that is pinching consumers who have seen limited wage gains. Production fell 2.5 percent in April from the prior month, the trade ministry said in today, more than a 2 percent drop forecast by economists surveyed by Bloomberg News. Household spending declined 4.6 percent from a year earlier, steeper than a projected 3.4 percent drop, while core consumer prices rose 3.2 percent.
The data show the challenge facing Prime
Minister Shinzo Abe as he tries to cap the world’s biggest debt burden while
the Bank of
Japan carries out record easing to drive inflation. Weak growth next
quarter -- the period that Abe will look at when deciding whether the economy
can bear a further increase in the sales tax --
would boost the chances of further fiscal support.
More
In other
Asian news, as China flexes its muscle in Southeast Asia, America responds with
an untimely mixed message. I wonder what they’re thinking in Beijing, Hanoi and
Tokyo this morning?
Pivot Pledge Wearing Thin on Hagel Trip as China Sway Rises
May 30,
2014 1:55 AM GMT
President Barack Obama’s emphasis this week on restricting the use of
the military abroad risks an unintended consequence: deepening concern about
fading U.S. engagement among Asian nations locked in disputes with China. Obama’s defense chief, Chuck Hagel, leads the U.S. delegation to an annual security conference in Singapore that starts today, two days after Obama said the armed forces can’t be the “primary component of our leadership.” The gathering concludes a week that’s seen China’s fighter jets challenging Japanese planes and the sinking of a Vietnamese fishing boat after a collision with a Chinese vessel.
The incidents underscored China’s
determination under President Xi Jinping to press territorial claims against Japan and the Philippines --
two U.S. allies -- and Vietnam, a former American foe that now welcomes U.S. military
visits. While the Obama administration says it’s “rebalancing” toward Asia, Asian
governments may seek greater assurances of support.
More
Hagel to Caution China on Overplaying Hand in Region
May 30, 2014 1:33 AM GMT
U.S. Defense Secretary Chuck Hagel said he will meet with a senior Chinese
military official during a security conference in Singapore and
caution him about escalating territorial conflicts in the Asia-Pacific region. Hagel is scheduled to meet with Lieutenant General Wang Guanzhong, deputy chief of general staff of China’s People Liberation Army and part of the country’s delegation to the annual Shangri-La security conference this weekend.
The U.S. has “a huge interest” in keeping sea lanes in the region open for commerce, Hagel told reporters on board his military aircraft heading to Singapore. Hagel said he also planned to discuss tensions between China and Vietnam over the South China Sea in “some specific terms.”
The U.S. and China “do have areas where we cooperate as well as directly confronting areas of, not competition, but areas where we think China is overplaying its hand in presenting new challenges and new tensions in this area,” Hagel said of his upcoming meeting with Wang.
More
Far across
the Pacific in America, there was yet more signs that the US economy is also
starting to wobble. Below, despite the bullish spin, less inventory building is
often a sign that businesses are worried about the forward health of the
economy. But we wouldn’t expect the modern media spin machine to have any
connection to reality.
U.S. Economy Shrinks for First Time Since 2011; Pent Demand Suggests Temporary Setback
May 29,
2014 9:15 PM GMT
Less is more for the U.S. economy, which suffered its first contraction since
2011 last quarter. Gross domestic product fell at a 1 percent annualized rate, worse than the most pessimistic forecast in a Bloomberg survey of economists, revised Commerce Department figures showed today in Washington. The good news: Much of the decline was due to less inventory building that economists say can’t last. As a result, some are boosting second-quarter growth forecasts, with Morgan Stanley projecting a 4.2 percent gain.
Stockpiles grew at less than half the pace than in the final three months of 2013, lopping 1.6 percentage points off GDP while businesses cut back on investment.
More
Express Tumbles as It Cuts Forecast, Plans Store Closings
May 30, 2014 5:01 AM GMT
Express
Inc. (EXPR), a retail chain that targets 20-something shoppers, tumbled as
much as 13 percent in late trading after cutting its annual forecast and
announcing plans to close 50 stores over the next three years. The company now expects earnings of 74 cents to 90 cents a share this year, down from a previous forecast of as much as $1.23, according to a statement yesterday. Shutting the stores will boost profit by $5 million to $8 million, Express said. The move follows an almost 10 percent sales drop in the first quarter.
More
Manhattan Condo Prices Fall as Buyers Push Back
May 30, 2014 5:01 AM GMT
Manhattan condominium prices fell in April by the most in more than three
years, a sign the market is slowing during the busiest selling season. Sale prices for previously owned units dropped 1.4 percent from March, the biggest decline since September 2010, after four consecutive monthly increases, according to a report today by real estate website StreetEasy.com. Condo prices are likely to be little changed through the spring, rising 0.1 in May, StreetEasy projected.
Purchases and prices typically rise during the second quarter, traditionally an active time for New York real estate. Contracts to buy condos in April dropped 3.2 percent from the previous month and almost 14 percent from a year earlier, signaling that buyer appetites have cooled after competition for tight inventories pushed up values, according to StreetEasy
More
I
know not with what weapons World War III will be fought, but World War IV will
be fought with sticks and stones.
Albert
Einstein.
At the Comex
silver depositories Thursday
final figures were: Registered 56.83 Moz, Eligible 119.29 Moz, Total 176.12 Moz.
Crooks and Scoundrels Corner
The bent, the seriously bent, and the totally
doubled over.
In the war of words between America’s kettle
calling China’s pot black, it was China’s turn to sound off yesterday. In
addition to dropping IBM from supplying equipment to China’s government, to be
followed of course by all of China’s local governments, China lobbed the ball
back into America’s court and said it will take unspecified further measures
depending on what America does next. Dropping the indictments would be the wise
course, but that would make Uncle Sam and the Washington gang look weak, so we
won’t be following the wise course of action from here. A game of tit for tat
looks likely to develop, until some poor slobs on both sides end up in a
holding cell at international airports. In the meantime, of course, both sides
will keep on hacking each other’s computers. We already know, thanks to the whistle-blower
Snowy, America’s NSA, among others, hacks everyone in the world from the US
president down.China Threatens Further Action Against U.S. Over Hacking Dispute
May 29, 2014 11:03 AM GMT
China said it will take
further action against the U.S. for prosecuting five of its military officers
for alleged hacking, saying it has evidence its companies have also been
hacked. Online attacks from a “specific country” have targeted Chinese companies, its military and important websites, Ministry of National Defense spokesman Geng Yansheng said. Geng didn’t specify the country in remarks posted on the ministry’s website today in response to a question about the indictment.
China will take further action depending on what happens with the U.S. prosecution of the five, who are accused of stealing commercial secrets, he said. The U.S. has still not given a clear explanation of its own cyber spying on foreign companies and governments revealed by former government contractor Edward Snowden, Geng said.
Geng’s remarks come after China’s government was said to be reviewing its reliance on servers from International Business Machines Corp. (IBM), in an early sign of specific retaliation. Relations between the two countries are tense over a number of issues, including China’s pressing of territorial claims against U.S. allies in the region.
“China has an old phrase, if you
want to correct others you need to correct yourself first,” Geng said,
according to the transcript on the ministry’s website. “The U.S.’s own behavior
is not correct, and it has done a lot of bad things, so how is it qualified to
make irresponsible remarks about others over the Internet issue?”
China has consistently opposed
and cracked down on hacking, including any theft of commercial secrets, Geng
said.
----Asked about reports the U.S. wants increase its cyber defense force to 6,000 staff by 2016, Geng said the U.S. hypes the Internet threat from other countries as an excuse to expand its offensive cyber capabilities, according to the statement.
“Last year’s report by U.S. company Mandiant about China is like this, and this year the U.S. Justice Department’s indictment against Chinese soldiers is like this,” he said, referring to a report by cybersecurity provider Mandiant Corp. about a Chinese military unit. “We can see such U.S. behavior was planned for long and has ulterior motives.”
The U.S. National Security Agency collects phone records from Verizon Communications Inc. (VZ) and other carriers and operates a program known as Prism under which it compels Google Inc. (GOOG), Facebook Inc. and other Internet companies to hand over data about users suspected of being foreign terrorists, according to documents exposed since June by Snowden.
More
Another weekend, and a very real hot civil war has now broken out in the
Ukraine, and still no one seems to notice or care. We may be at our very own
Sarajevo 1914 moment, but you wouldn’t know it from mainstream media, or our
totally disconnected casino stock markets. But signs of America starting to
wobble, might just be the first indication that the Fed’s “taper” is having an
impact. To mangle a metaphor, the missing money has to show up somewhere. Will
a new European war save the day? Have a great weekend everyone.
I do
not believe that civilization will be wiped out in a war fought with the atomic
bomb. Perhaps two-thirds of the people of the earth will be killed.
Albert
Einstein.
The monthly Coppock Indicators finished April
DJIA: +189 Down. NASDAQ: +347 Down. SP500: +249 Down. Sell in May, go away.
