Saturday 28 March 2015

Weekend Update – El Nino 2015?



Baltic Dry Index. 596 -02     Brent Crude 56.41

LIR Gold Target in 2019: $30,000.  Revised due to QE programs.

This weekend we ask, is this the start of El Nino 2015-2016?

Atacama desert deluge forces Antofagasta to shut three mines

Andrew NeilMarch 27 2015, 8:11am
Torrential rains and flooding in a desert region in northern Chile have forced copper producer Antofagasta (LON:ANTO) to temporarily shut down three of its mines.

Thunderstorms and flash floods moved into the usually bone-dry Atacama desert earlier this week, causing the Copiapo River to overflow its banks.

Seven people have already lost their lives and fears of mudslides have prompted authorities to evacuate thousands from their homes, many of which are mining communities situated in narrow valleys that cross the desert.

The desert deluge has been described as the worst rain disaster to fall on the north of the country in 80 years and the army has been placed in charge of public order in the region.

The area, home to giant mines, is famed for being one of the driest places on earth, with the mining town of Calama receiving an average 6 millimeters (0.2 inch) of rain a year.

Antofagasta’s Centinela, Antucoya and Michilla mines are located in the Atacama desert, and today, the FTSE 100 firm said operations in each have been suspended.

“The impact of the rain on the operations is currently being assessed and normal operations are expected to resume as soon as the situation improves,” the firm said in a statement.
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El Niño

El Niño is the warm phase of the El Niño Southern Oscillation (commonly called ENSO) and is associated with a band of warm ocean water that develops in the central and east-central equatorial Pacific (between approximately the International Date Line and 120°W), including off the Pacific coast of South America. El Niño Southern Oscillation refers to the cycle of warm and cold temperatures, as measured by sea surface temperature, SST, of the tropical central and eastern Pacific Ocean. El Niño is accompanied by high air pressure in the western Pacific and low air pressure in the eastern Pacific. The cool phase of ENSO is called "La Niña" with SST in the eastern Pacific below average and air pressures high in the eastern and low in western Pacific. The ENSO cycle, both El Niño and La Niña, causes global changes of both temperatures and rainfall.[2][3] Mechanisms that cause the oscillation remain under study.

Developing countries dependent upon agriculture and fishing, particularly those bordering the Pacific Ocean, are the most affected. In Spanish, the capitalized term "El Niño" refers to the Christ child, Jesus (literal translation "The (male) Child").

----Because El Niño's warm pool feeds thunderstorms above, it creates increased rainfall across the east-central and eastern Pacific Ocean, including several portions of the South American west coast.
The effects of El Niño in South America are direct and stronger than in North America. An El Niño is associated with warm and very wet weather months in April–October along the coasts of northern Peru and Ecuador, causing major flooding whenever the event is strong or extreme.[11] The effects during the months of February, March, and April may become critical. Along the west coast of South America, El Niño reduces the upwelling of cold, nutrient-rich water that sustains large fish populations, which in turn sustain abundant sea birds, whose droppings support the fertilizer industry. The reduction in upwelling leads to fish kills off the shore of Peru.[8]

The local fishing industry along the affected coastline can suffer during long-lasting El Niño events.
The world's largest fishery collapsed due to overfishing during the 1972 El Niño Peruvian anchoveta reduction.
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At the Comex silver depositories Friday final figures were: Registered 70.57 Moz, Eligible 105.90 Moz, Total 176.47 Moz.  

Crooks and Scoundrels Corner

The bent, the seriously bent, and the totally doubled over.

 

The monthly Coppock Indicators finished February

DJIA: +120 Down. NASDAQ: +213 Down. SP500: +169 Down.  

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